British Pound May Extend Drop as PMI Cools BOE Outlook Further

TALKING POINTS – BRITISH POUND, UK PMI, US DOLLAR, ISM

• British Pound vulnerable if soft PMI cools BOE rates outlook further
• ISM data unlikely to drive US Dollar volatility as FOMC looms large
• Aussie Dollar shrugs off RBA, Canadian Dollar up with crude oil

UK manufacturing PMI data headlines an otherwise quiet European data docket. It is expected to show that the pace of factory-sector activity growth slowed to weakest in 10 months in April. UK economic news-flow has tellingly underperformed relative to forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise that undercuts near-term BOE rate hike prospects and weighs on the British Pound.

The analogous US manufacturing ISM survey then enters the spotlight. A second consecutive month of moderation is projected after the gauge hit 14-year high in February. Anything shy of a dramatic deviation from consensus forecasts seems unlikely to generate a lasting response from the US Dollar, with traders probably unwilling to offer directional commitment ahead of the upcoming FOMC rate decision.

A status-quo RBA policy announcement left the Australian Dollar rudderless. The central bank signaled that inflation is likely to remain low for a while yet, reinforcing expectations that it will refrain from tightening for the remainder of the year. The Canadian Dollar edged up alongside modest crude oil price gains but both remained firmly confined within near-term ranges.

See our quarterly FX market forecast s to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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