EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Reversal Eyes Initial Resistance Hurdle

15 Oct 2018 17:30, GMT

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
EUR/USD 240min Price Chart
EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
Relevant EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Active Trade Setups

EUR/USD prices reversal off weekly support now eyeing initial resistance targets
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Euro reversed off confluence support last week with the advance now approaching the first major resistance hurdles. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts heading into the start of the week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: Earlier this month in my EUR/USD Weekly Technical Perspective we highlighted a key support zone at in Euro at 1.1436/97 (low-week reversal close and the 61.8% retracement of the August advance). Price registered a low at 1.1432 on October 9th with the subsequent rebound faltering just ahead of a key resistance confluence at 1.1617/27 – a region defined by the monthly open & opening-range highs, the 50% retracement of the late-September decline and the 100-day moving average. A breach above this level targets 1.1669 (breakout-zone for the Euro). Initial daily support rests at 1.1529 backed by the monthly low-day close at 1.1491.

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EUR/USD 240min Price Chart

Notes:A closer look at near-term price action shows Euro trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the October lows. Note that the upper parallel converges on the 1.1617/27 resistance zone and further highlights the technical significance of this region. Initial resistance rests with the median-line (currently 1.1550s) backed by 1.1521/29 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to 1.1497-1.15.

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Bottom line: EUR/USD is approaching near-term resistance targets which could see prices pullback a bit. From a trading standpoint, look for possible price exhaustion on a rally into 1.1617/27 – the trade remains constructive while above 1.15 with a breach above 1.1669 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price. The October opening-range is set - for now, I’ll favor fading weakness while within this formation. Keep in mind the EU-UK summit is on tap this week as well and may fuel increased volatility in the Euro & GBP crosses.

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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.12 (52.8% of traders are long) – extremely weak bearishreading
Traders have remained net-long since October 1st; price has moved 0.2% lower since then
Long positions are7.8% lower than yesterday and 13.5% lower from last week
Short positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 0.3% higher from last week
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week andthe recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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