USD/CHF Testing Make-or-Break Resistance

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• USDCHFrally approaching major resistance confluence- Rally at risk sub-9821
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USD/CHF Daily Chart

Technical Outlook: Earlier this month we highlighted that USDCHF was heading into a key resistance confluence at 9833 just ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The advance reversed sharply after registering a high at 9836 with the pullback rebounding off the 50-line of the ascending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the yearly lows.

The advance is once again approaching critical confluence resistance with the immediate advance at risk while below 9808/21- a level defined by the March swing low, the 200-day moving average and basic slope resistance extending off the yearly high. Interim support rests back at the 50-line (currently ~9730s) with a break below the monthly open / opening-range low at 9680 needed to suggest a more significant high is in place.

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USD/CHF 240min Chart

Notes:A closer look at price action further highlights this near-term resistance confluence region. Interim support targets at 9773 backed by the weekly opening-range lows at 9730- look for a reaction there with a break lower risking a drop into 9678/80 & the lower parallel / 9629. A breach / daily close above this resistance zone invalidates the reversal play with such a scenario targeting initial topside objectives at the median-line (~9860s) backed by the 50% retracement of the December decline at 9882.

Bottom line: USDCHF is at a big resistance level and while the medium-term focus remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance vulnerable while below this threshold. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking for near-term exhaustion up here – but stay nimble - the technical significance at this level suggests that IF the topside gives out, prices could see 9880 in a hurry.

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USDCHF- the ratio stands at -1.09 (47.9% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
• Long positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 11.9% lower from last week
• Short positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 15.2% higher from last week
• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCHF prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCHF-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CHF retail positioning are impacting price trends- Click here to learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.