Price & Time: Euro Weakness Into Quarter-end?

Talking Points

• EUR/USD pushed to a new high for the month
• Stalls near former high

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

EUR/USD traded to a new high for the month on Thursday and came within a few pips of testing the mid-May closing high before rolling over. The big question surrounding recent movements in the exchange rate is whether the advance of the past few weeks has been the start of another leg higher within the multi-month correction or is it just some sort of backtest of the mid-may high before a more important euro decline? Near-term cyclical analysis suggests that if it has just been some sort of backtest then EUR/USD shouldn’t really rally past today. A break of median-line channel support around 1.1230 would help confirm this change in behavior and re-focus lower. New highs for the month after today would be seen as a bullish development that would help clear the path for a much more important correction higher in the euro.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart: June 19, 2015

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

Key Event Risk in the Week Ahead:

LEVELS TO WATCH

Resistance: 1.1390 (Gann), 1.1465 (May high)

Support: 1.1275 (Gann) 1.1230 (Andrews)

Strategy: Sell EUR/USD

Entry: Sell EUR/USD at 1.1390

Stop: Daily close above 1.1465

Target: Open

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.