Technical Focus: New Zealand Dollar Views

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Current New Zealand Dollar thoughts are mixed. I like how NZD/USD has responded to parallel supports twice in the last month (March 9, 10, 14 and April 10, 12) and commitments of traders data (COT) indicates the most extreme ownership profile since July 2015 (large speculative short position and large commercial long position). The support reactions and COT position indicate that Kiwi is in a position to accept an advance but the timing is unclear. Price can stay low and carve a base for a bit longer. If price takes out .7090 (3/21 high) then time for the Bird to fly. Until then, range is the name of the game…probably between .7040 and .6950.

EUR/NZD just ‘looks’ bullish (check out a chart here), which probably doesn’t jive with a bullish NZD/USD (probably because it’s possible that both Euro and Kiwi outperform USD and Euro outperforms Kiwi). Reasons for EUR/NZD bullishness include impulsive (5 waves) action from the 2015 low and corrective (3 waves) action from the 2015 high, impulsive (5 waves) action from the YTD low and corrective (3 waves) action from the YTD high, and simply where the cross found low this week (top side of former corrective channel resistance, lows from 2016 (July and September), and 3 pips below the year open price).

AUD/NZD may have made its next low in a bottoming pattern today (daily key reversal). The cross has been trading at the bottom of its historical range since 2014 and recent action at internal parallels have confirmed a new bullish angle.