NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Two-Month Down Trend Broken

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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Kiwi Dollar breaks trend line resistance, hinting at gains ahead
• Profit booked on short position, re-entry to wait for signs of topping

The New Zealand Dollar broke through falling trend line resistance guiding the move lower since early February, hinting a significant reversal may be at hand. The move higher was triggered by comments from US President Trump, who said the greenback is “getting too strong”.

Near-term resistance is now at 0.7012, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7087. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.6965 exposes a rising trend line set from late December, now at 0.6902.

Although the catalyst for recent NZD/USD gains appears somewhat suspect, price action is warning that the short trade established at 0.7090 is now in a precarious position. With that in mind, profits will be booked and a sidelined position adopted for now until another compelling selling opportunity emerges.

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