NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Ten-Month Uptrend Under Fire

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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• New Zealand Dollar flirting with 10-month rising trend reversal
• Waiting for confirmation, improved risk/reward to re-enter short

The New Zealand Dollar may be on the verge of a major trend reversal as prices flirt with breaking support that has guided the currency upward since the beginning of the year. The Kiwi has swiftly lost ground against its US counterpart as Fed rate hike bets firmed after the US presidential election.

A daily close below trend line support (now at 0.7114) initially opens the door for a test of the 0.7035-58 area (October 13 low, 76.4% Fibonacci expansion). Alternatively, a move back above the 61.8% level at 0.7124 sees the next upside barrier at 0.7177, the 50% Fib.

Confirmation of a breakout is absent so far and prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems prudent for now until a more actionable opportunity presents itself.

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