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Yen Gains, US Dollar Edges Lower as Markets Digest Volatility

Yen Gains, US Dollar Edges Lower as Markets Digest Volatility

2016-11-11 07:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar corrects lower as markets digest volatility after US election
  • Japanese Yen rebounded overnight after dropping to a four-month low
  • Headline risk still high amid cautious consolidation into the week-end

Currency markets settled into quiet consolidation in overnight trade, with the dust seemingly starting to settle after breakneck volatility triggered by the outcome of the US presidential election. The US Dollar corrected gently lower having posted a fourth consecutive gain in yesterday’s session. The Japanese Yen edged upward, retracing after hitting the lowest level in almost four months.

The greenback has been buoyed by speculation that the platform put forward by President-elect Trump will translate into higher inflation, beckoning faster Fed tightening. Breakeven rates – a measure of expected price growth baked into bond yields – shot up while the priced-in outlook for next year’s rate hike path materially steepened.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar in European and US hours offers a convenient backdrop for the markets to catch their breath into the weekend. S&P 500 futures – a benchmark for overall sentiment trends – are trading noticeably flat in late Asian trade, suggesting a bit of consolidation may be on offer.

With that said, the potential for significant gyrations remains considerable as investors try to fine-tune bets on the policy trajectory of the incoming US administration. An optimistic view driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and deregulation has prevailed thus far but important uncertainties remain, particularly in the realm of trade policy. This makes for acute sensitivity to headline risk as details continue to trickle in.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (OCT)

55.2

-

57.5

21:45

NZD

Food Prices MoM (OCT)

-0.8%

-

-0.9%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp YoY (SEP)

2.1%

-

2.1%

23:50

JPY

PPI MoM (OCT)

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

PPI YoY (OCT)

-2.7%

-2.6%

-3.2%

4:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index MoM (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.2%

0.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

Germany Wholesale Price Index MoM (OCT)

-

0.4%

Low

7:00

EUR

Germany Wholesale Price Index YoY (OCT)

-

-0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

Germany CPI MoM (OCT F)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

Germany CPI YoY (OCT F)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

7:00

EUR

Germany CPI - EU Harmonized MoM (OCT F)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

Germany CPI - EU Harmonized YoY (OCT F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Construction Output SA MoM (SEP)

0.0%

-1.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output SA YoY (SEP)

-0.4%

0.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0726

1.0815

1.0854

1.0904

1.0943

1.0993

1.1082

GBP/USD

1.2092

1.2299

1.2427

1.2506

1.2634

1.2713

1.2920

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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