EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Coiling Up for a Breakout?

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Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Euro rally fizzles at 3-week high but breakdown unconfirmed
• Waiting for prices to resolve congestion, show actionable setup

A Euro spiked up to a three-week high against the US Dollar but momentum faded, leaving the single currency within the bounds of an eleven-month down trend. At the same time, the shorter-term up move set from mid-December 2016 is yet to be invalidated, making for congested positioning.

A daily close back below the now-familiar inflection point at 1.0682 opens the door for a test of the 1.0570-90 area (April 10 low, trend line). A dense wall of resistance lies between the 38.2% (1.0780) and 50% (1.0853) Fibonacci expansion levels, an area bolstered by falling trend resistance set from early May 2016.

After booking initial profits on half of the EUR/USD short trade activated at 1.0684, remaining exposure stopped out at breakeven. Current positioning does not appear to offer an actionable setup to enter another trade. Opting for the sidelines seems most prudent for now.

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the Euro trend? Find out here !