EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Waiting for Range Breakout

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Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Euro remains confined to a familiar range above 1.10 vs. US Dollar
• Waiting for a breakout to trade in line with dominant bearish trend

The Euro continues to wait for new direction cues as prices tread water in a now-familiar range above the 1.10 figure against the US Dollar. News-flow highlighting the currency’s vulnerability to Brexit spillover may breathe new life into the dominant down trend.

Near-term support is at 1.1018, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a descent to the 1.0876-1.0912 area (61.8% level, June 24 low). Alternatively, a turn above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1159 paves the way for a retest of trend line support-turned-resistance at 1.1234.

Positioning is inconclusive at this point. The dominant trend continues to appear bearish but follow-through is lackluster and prices are too close to support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. Opting for the sidelines seems prudent until something more actionable presents itself.