EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Breach Monthly Support

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Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Euro vulnerable to deeper losses after breaking monthly trend support
• Looking for better-defined risk/reward parameters to enter short trade

The Euro looks vulnerable to deeper losses after edging below trend line support guiding the upswing against the US Dollar since early March. Prices now look poised to probe below the 1.11 figure after producing a would-be double top near the 1.13 mark.

Near-term support is at 1.1094, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 1.0919. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 1.1202 paves the way for a retest of trend line support-turned-resistance, now at 1.1251.

We are keen to enter short EUR/USD in line with our 2016 fundamental forecast. Risk/reward considerations argue against taking the trade however. A daily close above the trend line marks the invalidation point for a position but setting a stop-loss along an adversely sloped barrier seems ill-advised.

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