AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Rejected at Channel Top

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Talking Points:

• AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Aussie Dollar whipsawed as support break, rebound fizzle in turn
• Positioning inconclusive as major event risk looms on the horizon

The Australian Dollaroverturned last week’s break of two-month chart support but upside momentum has since fizzled at channel top resistance. Positioning now looks inconclusive, with all eyes on the FOMC monetary policy announcement to establish fresh direction cues.

A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7482 opens the door for attest of 0.7436, the intersection of the 38.2% level and the channel floor. Alternatively, a reversal above 0.0.7556 (channel top, 38.2% Fib retracement) paves the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 0.7593.

An actionable trade setup is absent at this time. The near-term down trend seems to be holding for now but prices are too close to immediate support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. Furthermore, on-coming event risk may materially alter positioning. Staying flat seems most prudent.

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