Turkish Lira Outlook: USD/TRY Eyes Record High

Turkish Lira, USD/TRY Price, Analysis & News

• Turkish Lira Drops for 5th Consecutive Session
• EM Concerns to Stem from TRY Drop
• Eyes on Finance Minister Announcement

Record High In Sight: The Turkish Lira has remained under pressure with the currency extending losses for the 5th consecutive session. In turn, USD/TRY is back towards the August 2018 currency crisis highs (some data providers noting 7.24 as the record high). The central bank has been actively defending the Turkish Lira from weakening further amid the economic impact from the spread of coronavirus and subsequent lockdown measures. As such, central bank FX reserves are notably lower after 1/3 of reserves had been used throughout March and April. That said, given the continued weakening in the Lira, this raises concerns over how much firepower the central bank has in defending the currency.

Turkish Central Bank FX Reserves Depleted

Source: Refinitiv

Turkish Finance Minister in Focus

Turkish Finance Minister Albayrak will be holding a conference with investors from 1400BST, as such, it is expected that the finance minister will provide an update on state measures to stem the decline in the Lira. However, failure to satisfy market participants could see the 7.20 handle in focus before the record. On the downside, pullbacks have been shallow, which in turn would mean that it would likely take a firm close below 7.00 to negate the bullish momentum.

USD/TRY Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame

Source: IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX