US Dollar Rally Looks for Fresh Fodder in Fed Commentary
09 Nov 2015 05:23, GMTTalking Points:
- US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Fresh Fodder After Hitting 12-Year High
- New Zealand Dollar Gains as Traders Question RBNZ Rate Cut Probability
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A quiet economic data docket at the start of the trading week is likely to put Fed-speak in the spotlight. Remarks from Eric Rosengren kick off a busy week of scheduled commentary. Traders will be keen to see if the typically dovish Boston Fed President was swayed in favor of a near-term rate hike by last week’s impressive payrolls data. Rhetoric suggesting as much is likely to offer a boost to the US Dollar. Rosengren is not a voter on the current FOMC committee but will be one in 2016, making him an active participant in the on-coming policy normalization process.
The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade. The move was accompanied by a push higher in bond yields, suggesting an improvement in investors’ RBNZ outlook may have been behind the move. Indeed, a gauge of the priced-in policy view implied in OIS rates moved to the highest level since late April. The indicator now shows traders are no longer convinced that another rate cut is due in the next 12 months. The Yen traded broadly lower as Japanese stocks moved higher, undermining demand for the anti-risk unit. The greenback likewise weakened, correcting downward after jumping to a 12-year high last week.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | CNH | Trade Balance ($) (OCT) | 61.64B | 62.00B | 60.34B |
| 03:00 | CNH | Exports (YoY) (OCT) | -6.9% | -3.2% | -3.7% |
| 03:00 | CNH | Imports (YoY) (OCT) | -18.8% | -15.2% | -20.4% |
| 03:00 | CNH | Trade Balance (CNY) (OCT) | 393.2B | 367.1B | 376.2B |
| 03:23 | CNH | Exports (CNY) (YoY) (OCT) | -3.6% | -3.1% | -1.1% |
| 03:23 | CNH | Imports (CNY) (YoY) (OCT) | -16.0% | -11.7% | -17.7% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Official Reserve Assets ($) (OCT) | 1244.2B | - | 1248.9B |
| 00:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT) | 0.4% | - | 3.8% |
| 01:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP) | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 01:30 | JPY | Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (SEP) | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | EUR | German Trade Balance (SEP) | 20.0B | 15.4B | Medium |
| 07:00 | EUR | German Current Account Balance (SEP) | 21.9B | 12.3B | Medium |
| 07:00 | EUR | German Exports SA (MoM) (SEP) | 2.0% | -5.2% | Low |
| 07:00 | EUR | German Imports SA (MoM) (SEP) | 1.0% | -3.2% | Low |
| 08:00 | CHF | Total Sight Deposits (NOV 6) | - | 467.4B | Low |
| 08:00 | CHF | Domestic Sight Deposits (NOV 6) | - | 401.3B | Low |
| 09:30 | EUR | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (NOV) | 13.1 | 11.7 | Low |
| 10:30 | EUR | Eurozone OECD Economic Outlook | - | - | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0407 | 1.0594 | 1.0667 | 1.0781 | 1.0854 | 1.0968 | 1.1155 |
| GBPUSD | 1.4716 | 1.4908 | 1.4980 | 1.5100 | 1.5172 | 1.5292 | 1.5484 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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