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EUR/USD Breaks Out as GBP/USD Surges Toward Resistance, Gold Eyes Record

Diego Colman, Contributing Strategist

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD PRICE FORECAST:

  • Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar tumble as interest rate expectations shift in a more dovish direction
  • EUR/USD and GBP/USD rally, clearing important technical levels in the process
  • Gold prices break above a major resistance region, setting the stage for additional gains in the near term

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Most Read: US Dollar on Cusp of Breaking Down, Key Levels to Watch in Final Days of 2023

U.S. Treasury rates have fallen sharply from their cycle highs set in October on bets that the Fed would ease its stance aggressively next year. Their relentless slide accelerated Wednesday in thin markets ahead of the New Year's holidays, with the 2- and 10-year yields sinking to multi-month lows, as seen in the chart below.

US TREASURY YIELDS VS US DOLLAR

Source: TradingView

Falling yields sent the U.S. dollar plummeting, driving the DXY index to its weakest point in five months. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and gold prices rallied, overcoming important hurdles in the process. Below we analyze each of them separately from a technical standpoint.

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EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD charged upwards on Wednesday, pushing past a key ceiling in the 1.1075/1.1095 area. If this bullish breakout is sustained in the near term, the pair may to gravitate towards channel resistance at 1.1165 in short order. On further strength, a retest of the 2023 highs could be in the cards.

Conversely, if bullish sentiment fades and sparks a reversal, initial support is present within the 1.1075/1.1095 range, followed by 1.1020. Prices may stabilize in this region during a pullback, but a breakdown could rapidly propel a move toward 1.0935.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART

EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView

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GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Following its recent rally, GBP/USD is in its strongest position since August, with prices steadily approaching an important ceiling extending from 1.2830 to 1.2850. Clearing this technical barrier may prove tough for bulls, but a successful breakout could set cable on course towards the 1.3000 handle.

On the other hand, if market exhaustion triggers a setback, the first line of defense against a bearish assault lies at 1.2750-1.2735. Below this range, attention turns to the trendline support at 1.2675, followed by the psychological 1.2600 mark.

GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART

GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView

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Gold Mixed
Data provided by
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% 5% 7%
Weekly -9% 8% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
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GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

After Wednesday’s upward thrust, gold (XAU/USD) has breached a critical resistance region stretching from $2,070 to $2,075. If this bullish breakout is sustained and prices start consolidating to the upside, the bulls could be emboldened to target the all-time highs near $2,150.

On the flip side, if sellers regain the upper hand and drive XAU/USD downwards, closely observing the $2,075/$2,070 zone is crucial. If this support fails, bullish aspirations may be put on hold, potentially leading prices towards $2,050. On further weakness, the focus shifts to $2,010.

GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART

Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView

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