US Dollar Technical Analysis: Taking Aim at Key Range Top

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Talking Points:

• US Dollar Technical Strategy: Long via Mirror Trader USD Basket **
• Prices Resume Ascent, Move to Strongest Level in Nearly 5 Months
• Pivotal Range Top at March Highs Precedes Uptrend Resumption

The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index resumed its advance after a brief period of consolidation, rising to the highest level in nearly five months. Prices have now cleared resistance capping gains since early June, with buyers eyeing the next key juncture at the top of the larger consolidation range in play since mid-March.

Near-term resistance is in the 12123-49 area, marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion and the March 13 high. A break above that on a daily closing basis initially opens the door for a challenge of the 100% expansion at 12226. Alternatively, a move back below the 12043-59 zone, bracketed by the 61.8% Fib and the June 1 top, clears the way for a test of resistance-turned-support at 12008, the 50% expansion.

The US Dollar has broadly trended higher since mid-2011, with the latest push higher suggesting the dominant trajectory may be gearing up to reassert itself after months of sideways oscillation.Confirmation remains absent for the time being however and bullish positioning faces a potent near-term risk by way of the US jobs report ahead.

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** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.