NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downturn Confirmation Sought

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Talking Points:

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Kiwi Dollar recoils from familiar resistance above 0.72 figure vs. US cousin
• Near-term upswing needs to be negated to confirm case for bearish reversal

The New Zealand Dollar put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below familiar resistance above the 0.72 figure, hinting a downward reversal may be ahead. The boundaries of the upswing from December 2016 lows remain intact however, warning that confirmation of downturn is absent thus far.

Near-term support is at 0.7073, the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and a recently broken trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 0.6982. Alternatively, a push above 0.7235 paves the way for a challenge of a longer-term trend line now at 0.7305.

Besides the absence of clear break in the series of higher highs and lows set from late December, the break of resistance guiding the down move from November is unchallenged and continues to argue for an upside bias in the near term. As such, opting to stand aside until greater confirmation emerges seems prudent.

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