EUR/USD – The Abyss Hopefully Leads to Clarity

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Talking Points

• Long-term symmetry underpins and caps
• Near-term cycles turning positive

EUR/USD - The Abyss Hopefully Leads to Clarity

I usually write about the euro at least once a week. Looking at my archive last night, I realized I have not written about the single currency in over three weeks! There has been agood reason. I do not like wasting mental capital on instruments that I do not really have a good feel for and the euro these past few weeks has been a bit too unbalanced for my liking. In the bigger picture scheme of things, I think EUR/USD remains in “no man’s land” with long-term symmetry around 1.1600 and 1.0600 needing to break to give any sort of meaningful directional clarity. The good news is that while this plays out the exchange rate should continue to “build energy” much like a coiled spring. Once that “energy” is released via a break of long-term symmetry, it should set off a decent trend.

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For the meantime, we are left trying to discern the wags and wiggles of the exchange rate as it teases us within the confines of this now tiresome yearlong boundary. Assuming the undercut of the March 2 low is just that (an undercut), then it argues that the rate should try to strengthen into the end of the week/start of next week. We will see. It is difficult to envision with some of the things that have gone on over the last 24 hours, but perhaps that is counterbalanced by retail’s persistent short positioning (see HERE ). The February highs remain an attraction. Persistent weakness past London trading tomorrow (i.e. new lows) would invalidate my near-term positive thinking.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX