US Consumer Confidence Eases Amid Rising Trade War Tensions | Webinar

USD Analysis and Talking Points

• US Consumer Confidence Dips in June Given Rising Trade Tensions
• USD sees Muted Reaction following Release

US Consumer Confidence Remains at Historically High Levels

The US Consumer Confidence Index missed expectations having fallen to 126.4 in June from 128.8. However, the Conference Board highlighted that current conditions were largely unchanged, suggesting that the level of economic growth remains strong, while expectations continued to remain high by historical standards.

Consumer Short Term Outlook

Consumers view on the short-term outlook eased in June with the proportion of those anticipating that business conditions will improve over the next 6-months fell from 23.3% to 21.4%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen rose from 7.8% to 9.8%. Given the rising trade tensions, optimism over the economic environment may be beginning to ease.

Background on Trade Wars

• US China Trade War & a Brief History of Trade Wars – 1900 until Present
• A War to Trade More, Not Less - What’s Behind US-China Tariffs

USD PRICE CHART: 1-HOUR TIME FRAME (June 14th-June 26th)

Chart by IG

The USD was relatively unchanged following the consumer confidence data, given that it does not typically insitigate significant price action, as such, the greenback saw a very muted reaction upon release. Support in the greenback has largely been on the back of weaker EUR and GBP.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX