US Dollar Unfazed Despite 33K Job Loss Following Non-Farm Payrolls

Talking Points:

- US Non-Farm Payrolls decreased by -33K in September as Hurricanes Harvey and Maria put a hault to hiring.

- The Unemployment rate in the US fell to 4.2% versus the expected 4.4%; lowest since May 2001

- US wages increased along with the participation rate; underemployment fell slightly

- Markets ignored payrolls as the US Dollar rose

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and DailyFX Webinar Calendar for event risk coverage like NFPs

See the newly updated fourth quarter forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more the the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

This morning’s jobs report was purely a reflection of Hurricane Harvey and Maria which interrupted economic activity. The impact of the storms was reflected in jobs data as Non-Farm Payrolls contracted by 33k versus the forecasted +80k. However, the previous figure was revised up from 156k to 169k. Private payrolls also fell but by a wider margin at -40K versus the forecasted +75k.

Not all was bad for the labor market. Average weekly earnings YoY increased by a 2.9% versus the expected 2.6%. The previous figure was revised up to 2.7% compared to the previous 2.5%. The participation rate increased slightly to 63.1% versus the expected 62.9%.

In addition, the unemployment rate hit a near 16-year low at 4.2% marking the best print since May 2001.

For more on this morning’s NFP data be sure to tune into US NFPs (SEP) Round Table Coverage.

Below is a list of economic releases that has driven the US Dollar higher:

- USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (SEP): -33k versus 80K expected, from 169K (revised high from 156K)

- USD Change in Private Payrolls (SEP): -40k versus 75k expected, from 164k (revised lower from 165k) previous

- USD Unemployment Rate (SEP): 4.2% versus 4.4% expected, from 4.4% previous

See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, October 6, 2017

Chart 1: DXY Index 15-minute Chart (October 6, 2017 Intraday)

Markets ignored the NFP print as the dollar rose higher on the bearish on the contraction. The unemployment rate caught much of the attention. At the time that this was written DXY traded at 94.14.

--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research