EUR/USD Eyes Fresh 2016 High as Retail FX Sits Short, Interest Jumps

30 Mar 2016 16:30, GMT

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Risks Fresh 2016 High as Retail FX Remains Short, Open Interest Jumps.

- USDOLLAR Bearish Formations Continue to Take Shape; Fed’s William Dudley in Focus.

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Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

With EUR/USD climbing to a fresh monthly high of 1.1363, the near-term series of higher highs & lows may spur a further advance in the exchange rate, which may open up the broad range from 2015.
With the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) anticipated to show an uptick in the core rate of inflation, the single-currency may show a bullish reaction to the report as limit’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to implement more non-standard measures in 2016.
Will continue to watch the topside targets for EUR/USD as the pair holds above 1.1090 (50% retracement) to 1.1110 (50% retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1420 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1460 (78.6 retracement).

The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 10, with the ratio working its way back towards recent extremes as it slipped below -2.00 earlier this month.
The ratio currently sits at -1.49 as 40% of traders are long, with short positions increasing 15.0% from the previous week, while open interest stands 13.1% above the monthly average.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	11895.73	11919.94	11867.8	-0.17	82.82%

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

The near-term series of lower highs & lows accompanied by the bearish formation in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may lead to a further decline in the USDOLLAR as the dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen drags on interest-rate expectations.
Despite the 200K print for ADP Employment, central bank rhetoric may continue to drive market volatility as New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to speak ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Downside targets remain in focus for the USDOLLAR with a close below 11,898 (50% retracement) raising the risk for a more meaningful run at 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.