US Dollar May Rise if ADP Jobs Data Supports Hawkish Fed Pivot

US DOLLAR, FED, ADP, JOBS, NZD/USD – TALKING POINTS:

• Financial markets staid in APAC trade as markets await key data
• US Dollar may rise if ADP jobs data supports hawkish Fed pivot
• NZD/USD inching toward key support, may open the way to 0.68

Financial markets were relatively noncommittal in Asia-Pacific trade. Regional bourses traded flat on average and the G10 currencies marked time in familiar ranges. Similarly staid performance was registered in rates and benchmark commodities.

The absence of directional conviction may reflect an unwillingness to commit one way or another as key data driving the outlook for Fed policy – a key catalyst across global financial markets – prepares to cross the wires. Today the spotlight falls on June’s US ADP employment data

This private-sector jobs growth estimate will preview the much-anticipated release of official labor market figures on Friday. It is expected to show that job creation slowed last month, with the economy adding 600k jobs following a 978k rise in May.

The critical consideration at play may be whether any slowdown in hiring is judged as owing to qualified worker shortages – an inflationary influence – or slowing demand. The former scenario may be supportive of the US Dollar against its top counterparts, while the latter may see it backtrack somewhat.

NZD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – KIWI DOLLAR TAKES AIM AT KEY SUPPORT

The New Zealand Dollar has slipped back below the 0.70 figure after recoiling from support-turned-resistance in the 0.7070-97 area. Sellers now aim to target the familiar bottom in the 0.6923-43 zone. A daily close below that may set the stage to challenge the 0.68 handle. Reclaiming a foothold back above 0.70 may put resistance near 0.71 into play once more, with a secondary barrier in the 0.7138-43 band following thereafter.

NZD/USD daily chart created with TradingView

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC at DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter