Japanese Yen May Extend Recovery as Risk Appetite Fizzles
13 Jul 2016 06:28, GMTTalking Points:
- Yen gains, commodity Dollars retreat as yesterday’s risk-on surge retraces
- Sentiment boost following early end of UK PM contest might prove fleeting
- Downbeat BOC rhetoric may feed risk aversion, drive continued Yen gains
The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars corrected lower and the anti-risk Japanese Yen rebounded as markets corrected after yesterday’s rosy turn in the markets’ mood. Investors appeared to be cheering the ascent of Theresa May to UK Prime Minister, replacing outgoing David Cameron in the wake of the UK Brexit referendum. Tellingly, the British Pound rose alongside higher-yielding currencies and share prices.
The markets were gearing up for a prolonged leadership struggle but Ms May was left as the last candidate standing earlier this week, resolving who will take the reins in just three weeks. That acceleration in the timeline seems to have inspired hope that lingering uncertainty surrounding implementation of the referendum’s outcome could be unwound sooner than previously expected. It remains to be seen if details on the makeup of the new administration and its policy proposals will continue to buoy sentiment.
Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to keep risk trends at the forefront. Global growth momentum in the wake of the Brexit vote remains a central theme. Updated economic forecasts accompanying the Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement will mark the next chapter in this narrative. News-flow out of the North American economy has deteriorated relative to forecasts since the central bank’s last sit-down in late May, which may foreshadow a downbeat tone.
Meanwhile, comments from Dallas and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Kaplan and Harker may strike an upbeat tone if they fall in line with the cautiously optimistic remarks from other US central bank officials this week. The Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions may likewise paint a supportive picture. Indeed, a Citigroup index tracking US news-flow relative to expectations has been firming since mid-May and now implies the strongest outperformance in six months.
On balance, the risk-off side of the argument may prevail. While the naming of a UK PM ahead of schedule is better than the alternative, this doesn’t diminish Brexit’s many challenges but only starts work on them sooner. Furthermore, markets will hear little that they’ve not already accounted for if Fed officials maintain the party line. An ominous BOC tone coupled with a likely tendency toward profit-taking before the looming BOE rate decision following yesterday’s risk-on surge may prove more potent.
Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:30 | USD | Fed's Kashkari Holds Town Hall Meeting | - | - | - |
| 22:45 | NZD | Food Prices (MoM) (JUL) | 0.4% | - | -0.5% |
| 00:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Conf Index (JUL) | 99.1 | - | 102.2 |
| 00:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (JUL) | -3.0% | - | -1.0% |
| 00:30 | NZD | RBNZ’s McDermott Speaks | - | - | - |
| 02:30 | USD | Fed's Mester Speaks at Business Luncheon | - | - | - |
| 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F) | -2.6% | - | -2.3% |
| 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F) | -0.4% | - | -0.1% |
| 04:30 | JPY | Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY) | -2.4% | - | -1.0% |
| 07:00 | CNY | Trade Balance ($) (JUN) | 45.65b | 49.98b | |
| 07:00 | CNY | Exports ($) (YoY) (JUN) | -5.0% | -4.1% | |
| 07:00 | CNY | Imports ($) (YoY) (JUN) | -6.2% | -0.4% | |
| 07:00 | CNY | Trade Balance (CNY) (JUN) | 323.00b | 324.77b | |
| 07:00 | CNY | Exports (CNY) (YoY) (JUN) | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 07:00 | CNY | Imports (CNY) (YoY) (JUN) | -1.2% | 5.1% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | GBP | BOE Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys | - | - | Medium |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production SA (MoM) (MAY) | 2.0% | 1.1% | Medium |
| 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production WDA (YoY) (MAY) | 1.3% | 2.0% | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0932 | 1.1006 | 1.1033 | 1.1080 | 1.1107 | 1.1154 | 1.1228 |
| GBPUSD | 1.2528 | 1.2850 | 1.3048 | 1.3172 | 1.3370 | 1.3494 | 1.3816 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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