Pound May Rise if Wage Inflation Pickup Boosts BOE Rate Hike Bets
11 Nov 2015 08:40, GMTTalking Points:
- Pound May Rise if Wage Inflation Pickup Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Outlook
- More BOE, ECB Commentary in Focus as Traders Ponder Policy Trends
- See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
UK Jobless Claims figures headline the economic data docket in European trading hours. An increase of 1.4k is expected, marking a narrow improvement from the 4.6k rise in the prior month. The headline figure carries relatively limited implications for BOE policy bets however and traders will likely Average Earnings numbers far more interesting.
The pace of wage inflation is expected to rise to 3.2 percent, marking the third consecutive acceleration. A higher-than-expected outcome may hint that building domestic price pressures will be able to overcome external disinflationary forces from soft oil prices and a stronger currency. That could bolster rate hike expectations, sending the British Pound higher. A soft result could be seen as delaying tightening and weigh on the UK unit.
Meanwhile, another busy round central bank commentary will see investors combing through the rhetoric for near-term policy clues. Remarks from BOE Governor Mark Carney along with Deputy Governors Bailey, Shafik and Cunliffe may help shape tightening timeline expectations. Meanwhile, comments from ECB President Mario Draghi as well as policymakers Constancio and Hansson may help inform bets on possible routes for stimulus expansion at next month’s meeting.
Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.
Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Conf Index (NOV) | 101.7 | - | 97.8 |
| 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (NOV) | 3.9% | - | 4.2% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Money Stock M2 (YoY) (OCT) | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT) | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (OCT) | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT) | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (OCT) | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (OCT) | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% |
| 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT P) | -23.1% | - | -19.1% |
| 06:00 | CNY | Bloomberg Monthly GDP Estimate (YoY) (OCT) | 6.57% | - | 6.55% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | GBP | Claimant Count Rate (OCT) | 2.3% | 2.3% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | Jobless Claims Change (OCT) | 1.4k | 4.6k | High |
| 09:30 | GBP | Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (SEP) | 3.2% | 3.0% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (SEP) | 2.6% | 2.8% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (SEP) | 5.4% | 5.4% | Medium |
| 09:30 | GBP | Employment Change (3M/3M) (SEP) | 120k | 140k | Low |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0543 | 1.0632 | 1.0678 | 1.0721 | 1.0767 | 1.0810 | 1.0899 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5011 | 1.5065 | 1.5092 | 1.5119 | 1.5146 | 1.5173 | 1.5227 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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