US Dollar May Shrug Off Soft PPI, Yen Aiming Higher on Risk Appetite
15 Jan 2015 06:22, GMTTalking Points:
- Australian Dollar Soars as Firm Employment Data Trims RBA Rate Cut Bets
- Yen May Continue Lower After Overnight Slump on Firming Risk Sentiment
- US Dollar May Shrug Off Soft Headline PPI on Limited Fed Outlook Impact
The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 1 percent on average against its top counterparts, after December’s Employment figures topped economists’ forecasts (as expected). The report showed the economy added 37,400 jobs last month, topping calls for a 5,000 increase. The jobless rate fell to 6.1 percent, the lowest in four months. The Aussie’s advance tracked a jump in front-end bond yields, suggesting the upbeat data set poured cold water on the recent build in RBA interest rate cut speculation.
The Yen faced selling pressure, dropping as much as 0.4 percent against the majors, as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index launched a sharp recovery. The build in risk appetite sapped demand for the safety-linked currency. More of the same is hinted ahead as S&P 500 futures point firmly higher ahead of the opening bell in Europe, with relatively little on the economic data docket to disrupt sentiment-driven price action.
December’s US PPI report enters the spotlight later in the day. The headline year-on-year wholesale inflation rate is seen edging down to 1 percent, the lowest in 10 months. The soft result may not yield significant downside pressure on the US Dollar however.
The core PPI reading (which excludes the impact of energy prices) is seen edging upward to 1.9 percent, the highest since May. This suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to continue chalking up weak headline inflation to the transitory impact of dropping crude oil prices, meaning it won’t necessarily interpret the result as reason enough to delay interest rate hikes.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:45 | NZD | Food Prices (MoM) (DEC) | 0.3% | - | -0.5% |
| 23:50 | JPY | PPI (MoM) (DEC) | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 23:50 | JPY | PPI (YoY) (DEC) | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Machine Orders (MoM) (NOV) | 1.3% | 4.4% | -6.4% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Machine Orders (YoY) (NOV) | -14.6% | 6.3% | -4.9% |
| 0:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance (DEC) | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| 0:30 | AUD | Employment Change (DEC) | 37.4K | 5.0K | 45.0K |
| 0:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate (DEC) | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| 0:30 | AUD | Full Time Employment Change (DEC) | 41.6K | - | 2.6K |
| 0:30 | AUD | Part Time Employment Change (DEC) | -4.1K | - | 42.3K |
| 0:30 | AUD | Participation Rate (DEC) | 64.8% | 64.7% | 64.7% |
| 0:30 | AUD | RBA FX Transactions Govt (A$) (DEC) | -1193M | - | -381M |
| 0:30 | AUD | RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (DEC) | 124M | - | 49M |
| 0:30 | AUD | RBA FX Transaction (A$) (DEC) | 1081M | - | 337M |
| 1:30 | NZD | REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (DEC) | -1.0% | - | 3.3% |
| 1:30 | NZD | REINZ House Price Index (YoY) (DEC) | 6.0% | - | 6.0% |
| 1:30 | NZD | REINZ House Sales (YoY) (DEC) | 24.2% | - | 6.5% |
| 2:04 | CNY | Money Supply M2 (YoY) (DEC) | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
| 2:04 | CNY | Money Supply M1 (YoY) (DEC) | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 2:04 | CNY | Money Supply M0 (YoY) (DEC) | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| 2:04 | CNY | New Yuan Loans (DEC) | 697.3B | 890.0B | 852.7B |
| 2:04 | CNY | Aggregate Financing RMB (DEC) | 1690.0B | 1200.0B | 1146.3B |
| 2:04 | CNY | Foreign Reserves (DEC) | $3840.0B | $3900.0B | $3887.7B |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00 | EUR | German GDP nsa (YoY) (2014) | 1.5% | 0.1% | Medium |
| 9:00 | EUR | German Budget Balance/GDP Ratio (2014) | 0.1% | 0.1% | Low |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (NOV) | 20.0B | 19.4B | Low |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (€) (NOV) | - | 24.0B | Low |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1549 | 1.1668 | 1.1729 | 1.1787 | 1.1848 | 1.1906 | 1.2025 |
| GBPUSD | 1.4968 | 1.5092 | 1.5163 | 1.5216 | 1.5287 | 1.5340 | 1.5464 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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