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Loonie Weekly Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakdown Targets Yearly Lows

Loonie Weekly Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakdown Targets Yearly Lows

2019-06-26 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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The US Dollar is down nearly 3% against the Canadian Dollar since the yearly highs registered last month with the decline now targeting the 2019 range-lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more.

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USD/CAD Price Chart – Loonie Weekly

USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Weekly - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

Notes: In my last USD/CAD Weekly Price Outlook we noted a key support zone, “around 1.3274- a break below this zone would suggest a larger correction is underway targeting 1.3052/99- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.” Price marked an outside-weekly reversal to close below 1.3274 last week with price now probing four-month lows. Note that weekly RSI held sub-60 throughout the early-2019 advance and suggests the broader risk remains weighted to the downside from a momentum standpoint.

Key support remains at the yearly opening-range lows / 38.2% retracement at 1.3052/68 – ultimately a break below the 100% extension at 1.2969 is needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway. Interim resistance now stands back at 1.3274 with bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.3435/37.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The focus remains on a drop towards key support at 1.3052/68 on the back of last week’s reversal. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a move towards the yearly range lows- look for a reaction there. We’ll favor fading weakness sub-1.3274 for now. Review my latest USD/CAD Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Loonie trading levels.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment - Loonie Positioning - USD/CAD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.04 (51.1% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 7.1% higher than yesterday and 34.5% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 29.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Key US / Canada Data Releases

US / Canada Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Price Outlook

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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