Support & Resistance

Last updated:
S - Strong
   |   
M - Moderate
   |   
W - Weak
   

Gold Price Chart: XAU/USD Approaching Range Highs– Battle Lines Drawn

Short term trading and intraday technical levels.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Michael Boutros

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Michael Boutros

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Gold prices are approaching the upper bounds of a multi-week consolidation formation just below six-year highs – its make or break for the bulls. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Gold setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Technical Forecast

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was trading within, “a multi-week consolidation pattern just below resistance- look to the break for guidance.” Price is approach the upper bounds of this consolidation range with daily resistance steady at the August 2013 high at 1433. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to validate the breakout with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance targets at 1451 backed by the 50% retracement of the decline off the record highs at 1483.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows gold breaking above the weekly opening-range highs on an outside-day reversal candle yesterday with price defending weekly open support today at 1415. The focus is on a breach above consolidation resistance at 1433/35 to keep the long-bias in play targeting 1441 and 1451. Monthly open support rests at 1409 backed by 1440 – ultimately a break / close below the July support line, currently ~1390 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The focus remains on a break of the broader multi-week consolidation range with price now approaching the upper bounds of the formation. From a trading standpoint, look to raise protective stops on a move into 1433 with a breach / close above needed to keep the topside advance viable. Be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion IF price fails to close above this level this week. Ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable long-entries while above former slope resistance / 1390. Review our latest Gold 3Q Forecast for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.81 (64.4% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are1.4% lower than yesterday and 2.1% higher from last week
  • Short positions are8.9% higher than yesterday and 2.1% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold price trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex


S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 Technical Landscape is Getting Interesting

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

S&P 500/Dow Jones Technical Outlook:

  • S&P 500 pulling back from 3000+, top-side t-line
  • Dow Jones also coming off a top-side trend-line
  • Continue to watch the Russell 2000 as it lags severely

See how the quarterly forecast has played out what it could mean for the big-picture – Q2 Equity Markets Forecast.

S&P 500 pulling back from 3000+, top-side t-line

The S&P 500 topped 3k last week, notching it for the first time ever. In the process of doing so a top-side trend-line dating back to the January 2018 high was tagged. An interesting confluence of a psychological level and form of resistance.

So far, the response has been relatively benign with only a shallow pullback developing. That could change of course, but as long as the market doesn’t fall apart, despite resistance, we will have to respect the generally strong trend.

If, however, we see the market start to turn lower with aggression, then it is possible it is the beginning of a decline out of a Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST), or known to some as a Megaphone pattern.

These patterns through their increasingly larger price swings indicate growing instability in a trend and can mark major tops; in this case it would be growing uncertainty in a bull market since 2009 that has been one of the most persistent in history. The time from Jan ‘18 to now is a large span of time for such a topping pattern to develop, which is in good proportion to the extreme bull market run we’ve seen since the depths of the GFC. It’s implications could be quite sizable.

A top and drop could be arriving at an interesting point in time as well given we are heading through the summer towards the fall, a time when stocks have been known to struggle to flat-out get routed.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart (RST/Megaphone)

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 Technical Landscape is Getting Interesting

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Top-side t-line, 3k area)

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 Technical Landscape is Getting Interesting

Dow Jones also coming off a top-side trend-line

The Dow Jones is also trading at the trend-line from January 2018. Following the S&P here as it is the broader index, but keep an eye on how the Dow performs relative to it.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (top-side t-line)

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 Technical Landscape is Getting Interesting

Continue to watch the Russell 2000 as it lags severely

The Russell 2000 is an index I have been discussing with increasing regularity due to the glaring divergence in performance versus large-cap stocks. Small divergences amongst indices are normal and nothing to be alarmed about, but when large-caps (as per the SPX) are trading in record territory and small-caps (as per the R2k) are 12% off their record levels, we could have a problem brewing.

The lack of interest by market participants to pick up higher risk growth stocks is a warning sign of waning risk appetite. With the S&P already building a bearish topping pattern, this further adds to the notion that growing instability may soon come to push the market in reverse. There are other signs too that perhaps the zeal of market participants to own stocks is on the decline; FAANG has lost some interest as it remains below its yearly and record high. (See: GOOG Weighs on FAANG Like FB Did Last Year…)

Russell 2000/S&P 500 Weekly Chart (Major divergence)

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 Technical Landscape is Getting Interesting

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


EURUSD Technical Analysis: Trend Bias Bearish Amid Congestion

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL

  • Euro chart sending mixed signals as prices struggle in congestion
  • Traders might withhold conviction bets until greater clarity is had
  • Long-term positioning still argues for a broadly bearish trend bias

See the latest Euro technical and fundamental forecast to find out what will drive prices in Q3!

Euro technical positioning has been somewhat confounding in recent weeks. The currency completed a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation, hinting that an upturn against the US Dollar is in the cards. Prices have struggled for follow-through however. A rejection downward on a test above the 1.14 figure led to a break of trend support set form late May, hinting that the nascent rebound has died in infancy.

Sellers may find it premature to celebrate however. Thus far, the down move has only retested Wedge top, leaving the bullish implications of its break intact. A rebound here has now brought on a challenge of the broken rising trend line as resistance, leaving markets wondering which recently breached technical level will hold up and which reversal – upward or downward – will end up being neutralized.

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Trend Bias Bearish Amid Congestion

Practically speaking, this probably means that traders will withhold directional conviction until a concrete break from congestion is secured. In the meantime, zooming out to the monthly chart for a bit of context seems instructive. Prices remain locked in a decade-long decline – recent chop aside – appear to be grinding lower after breaking support in the 1.1449-1.11554 zone. The 1.05 figure beckons ahead.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

EURUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


EURGBP Uptrend May Soon Retreat as Pair Test 9-Month Resistance

Political economy, economic and market themes.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Dimitri Zabelin

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Dimitri Zabelin

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EURGBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  • EURBP broke through 2-month rising support channel
  • Despite deviation the pair is continuing to climb higher
  • EURGBP may retreat as it approaches key price level

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

Last week, EURGBP broke through a 2-month rising support channel, though this deviation from the steep uptrend did not discourage traders’ resolve. Despite slowing upside momentum as shown in negative RSI divergence, underlying bullish sentiment for the pair – arguably caused by eroding confidence in Sterling over Brexit – appears strong.

EURGBP Broke Below 2-Month Upward-Sloping Support Channel

Chart Showing EURGBP

The pair is now aiming to breach the 0.9039/60 critical resistance range (red dotted lines). The last time EURGBP was trading within this zone was towards the latter half of 2018 and early breaths of 2019. In the coming week, the pair may shy away and trade between the lower bound and support at 0.8952 if traders do not yet feel confident enough to push through formidable resistance.

However, irregular price moves should be taken into consideration in light of the ongoing EU-UK divorce that has left both partners bitter and exhausted. EURGBP’s volatility is frequently reflected in political oscillations surrounding Brexit. The 0.42% jump on July 16 came the same day as a UK lawmaker said blocking a no-deal outcome may be more difficult than expected.

In this regard, performing technical analysis on a pair whose counter currency is linked to a fundamentally volatile environment makes it unusually difficult and unpredictable. There is no telling when a sudden political development will cross the headlines and what the respective magnitude of the price swing will be.

If you’re interested in learning how to analyze and trade around political risks, see my report here.

Zooming out, EURGBP has experienced a speculator bounce back after it touched the upper crust of the 2-year 0.8300-.8477 support channel (red dotted lines). Since early May, the pair has closed higher for eleven consecutive weeks, though the extending wicks and shrinking bodies of the most recent candles suggest the sugar rush may be wearing off.

Is EURGBP Feeling Exhausted?

Chart Showing EURGBP

EURGBP TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter


Pound Sterling Outlook: GBP/JPY Price Printing New Multi-Month Low

Technical Analysis.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Mahmoud Alkudsi

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Mahmoud Alkudsi

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast

  • GBP Sterling Charts and Analysis
  • GBP/JPY price action.

Have you checked our latest trading guide for USD and Gold? Download for free our Q3 Forecasts

GBP/JPY – The Sellers are Back

On Monday, GBP/JPY sellers ended the trendless move and forced the pair to close below 135.55 after failing six times since last month. Today, the pair printed 133.85 - its lowest level in over six months.

On Monday, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped towards the oversold territory then remained flat, indicating the sellers are dominating with a bit of hesitation.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (JAN 13, 2017 – JULY 18, 2019) Zoomed out

GBP/JPY price daily chart 18-07-19 Zoomed out

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 23 – JULY 18, 2019) Zoomed IN

GBP/JPY price daily chart 18-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice at the start of this week GBP/JPY moved to a lower trading zone 133.40 – 135.55 eyeing a test of the low- end of this range.

Its worth noting that a close below the low-end could send the price to test the yearly support at 132.37, however the weekly support level at 133.00 would be worth monitoring.

In turn, any failure to close below the low-end may cause a rally towards the high-end of this zone although, the daily resistance level underlined on the chart should be considered. See the chart (zoomed in) to know more about the significant resistance levels in a further bullish scenario.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

GBP/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JunLY 10 – July 18, 2019)

GBP/JPY price four-hour chart 18-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice yesterday GBP/JPY tried to recover some of the recent losses however, stopped at 134.62 and fell back therefore, a break above this level may send the price towards the high-end of the aforementioned trading zone although, the daily resistance marked on the chart needs to be monitored.

On the other hand, if the pair continues to fall, then a break below the 133.00 handle could press the price towards 132.02 however, the yearly support mentioned above (see the chart) should be watched closely.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Nick Cawley

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Nick Cawley

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis

  • Inflation in-line with market expectations.
  • The Conservative Leadership contest is now down to 5 contenders.

Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Sterling Waits For Leadership Vote, FOMC and BoE

The latest round of UK consumer and retail price data showed price pressure stable in May, extending a pattern seen since the start of the year, with year-on-year inflation running at 2.0% - down from 2.1% - while core inflation nudged a tick lower to 1.7% over the same timeframe.

Commenting on today’s release, ONS Head of Inflation Mike Hardie said, ‘Inflation eased in May as air fares fell back after the Easter highs in April. The overall rate of inflation has remained steady since the start of the year’.

The Conservative Party Leadership contest continues today with just five contenders now remaining. Today’s vote will see the candidate with the lowest number of votes eliminated. Tuesday’s round of voting which saw Dominic Raab leave the contest showed Boris Johnson extend his lead over the other candidates, while Rory Stewart also received a boost and overtook Home Secretary Sajid David.

Boris Johnson 126 votes -- Jeremy Hunt 46 votes -- Michael Gove 41 votes – Rory Stewart 37 votes – Sajid Javid 33 votes.

GBPUSD continues to pull back from Tuesday’s multi-month low with three market moving events over the next 24 hours eyed by traders. Later today the result of the Leadership vote takes front stage, followed by the FOMC meeting, ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Meeting. The pullback from Tuesday’s multi-month low currently looks unconvincing and is mainly based on a marginally weaker US dollar. The UK Leadership vote will be the main short-term driver with markets continuing to fear a Hard Brexit as odds-on favorite Brexiteer Boris Johnson continues to hold a commanding lead.

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 81.1% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish trading bias for GBPUSD.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – June 19, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price Outlook: Euro and US Dollar Rebound against Swiss Franc

Technical Analysis.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Mahmoud Alkudsi

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Mahmoud Alkudsi

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Price Forecast

  • USD/CHF and EUR/CHF price action.
  • EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Charts and Analysis

Did you check our latest forecasts on USD and EUR and Gold? Find out more for free from our Q3 forecasts for commodities and main currencies

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Closing with Loss

Last week EUR/CHF peaked at 1.11598 then declined as expected in our last update closing the weekly candlestick with nearly 0.5% loss of its value. On the other hand, USD/CHF suffered even more and closed with 1.5% loss on Friday.

Today, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher for both however, it might be early to talk about a possible uptrend with EUR/CHF still below 50 and USD/CHF has not crossed above yet.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (JAN 5, 2017 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed out

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (April 16 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed IN

USDCHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at daily chart, we notice USD/CHF on Monday U-turned at 0.9817 then rallied in the following day closing in a higher trading zone 0.9860 – 0.9930 and currently, the pair may be on its way to test the high- end of this zone.

Hence, a close above the high-end could open the door for the price to rally towards 1.0008 although, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched along the way.

In turn, a close below the low-end of the zone might send the price towards 0.9785 however, the weekly support levels mentioned on the chart (zoomed in) need to be kept in focus.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (JUL 17 , 2017 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed Out

EUR/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed out

EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (MAY 3 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed IN

EUR/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we notice EUR/CHF pressed lower on Friday then rebounded yesterday from the low end of the trading zone 1.1057- 1.1190. Therefore, the pair may be on its way to test the high-end of this zone contingent on clearing the daily resistance levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in).

Its worth noting that if EUR/CHF breaks and remains above the neckline of a double bottom pattern residing at 1.1172 this could open the door for the price to rally towards 1.1278 however, the price should first clear the high -end of the aforementioned trading zone with the weekly resistance levels highlighted on the chart.

On the flip-side, a close below the low-end of the trading zone might press the price towards 1.1001 nonetheless, the weekly support zone underscored on the chart needs to be considered.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


EUR/JPY Outlook: Euro May Resume Downtrend Against Japanese Yen

Technical Analysis.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Mahmoud Alkudsi

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Mahmoud Alkudsi

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

EUR/JPY Price Outlook,

  • EUR/JPY Charts and Analysis
  • EUR/JPY may end its current sideways move.

See EUR and JPY guides and find out for free what is likely to move market prices through Q3 from Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts

EUR/JPY– Lower but Still Trendless

Last week EUR/JPY traded lower, breaking the June 21 low 120.95. However, the pair rebounded on Friday to 120.81- its lowest level in nearly seven weeks, failing to end the current sideways move .

Last week the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped from 48 to 35 indicating that sellers could be on their way to resuming the downtrend.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Need a hand? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (April 20, 2017- JULY 22, 2019) Zoomed Out

EUR/JPY price daily chart 22-07-19 Zoomed out

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (DEC 27, 2016 – JULY 22, 2019) Zoomed in

EUR/JPY price daily chart 22-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice that on Wednesday EUR/JPY moved to a lower trading zone 119.78 – 121.25 then on Friday, the price tested the high-end of the zone but failed to close above it.

If EUR/JPY remains trading below the high-end of the aforementioned trading zone, this could embolden the sellers to put an end to the current trendless move and press the price towards the low -end of the zone. However, the weekly support zone highlighted on the chart (Zoomed in) should be monitored.

In turn, the sideways move may continue if the buyers succeed in leading the pair to close above the high-end. This mean the price may rally towards 122.52. Nonetheless, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched along the way.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (June 26 – JULY 22, 2019)

EUR/JPY price four- hour chart 22-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice on Friday EUR/JPY rebounded near the July 18 low at 120.78. Currently, the pair eyes the neckline of a double bottom hence, if the price breaks and remains above 121.28 this suggest a possible rally towards 121.77.

It's worth noting that a break above 121.50 may lead the price towards the July 15 high at 121.85 however, the July 16 high at 121.68 needs to be considered.

On the other hand, a break below the July 18 low at 120.78 could send the price towards 120.30 although, the weekly support at 120.50 should be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


NZDUSD Technical Analysis: 2-Year Downtrend Ready to be Broken?

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

NZDUSD Technical ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL

  • New Zealand Dollar marks swing top with Bearish Engulfing pattern
  • Break of uptrend from mid-June lows points to near-term bias change
  • Risk/reward improvement probably needed to inspire follow-through

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your NZDUSD trading strategy!

The New Zealand Dollar overturned signs of topping identified last week, powering upward to hit the highest level since early April against its US counterpart. The latest surge came against the backdrop of dovish commentary form Fed officials setting the stage for the onset of interest rate cuts.

Buyers now aim to challenge the outer layer of resistance guiding NZDUSD downward since late July 2017, presently at 0.6825. A daily close above that would mark an important bullish turn in overall positioning, setting the stage for a rise to challenge triple top resistance north of the 0.69 figure.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

The dominant trend bias remains bearish in the meantime however. In fact, overt signs of negative RSI divergence warn that upside momentum might be ebbing. That might precede a reversal lower, paining recent gains as corrective within the context of the broader downtrend.

In any case, an actionable trade setup seems absent for the moment. Chasing the pair higher on the long side might be premature without a defined resistance break. The same may be said for entering short absent defined signs of topping, let alone before any such turn is confirmed.

NZDUSD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

DAX 30/CAC 40 Technical Highlights

  • DAX pulling back, healthy or a sign when compared to the U.S.?
  • CAC healthier looking, lots of resistance to contend with though

For fundamental and technical forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

DAX pulling back, healthy or a sign when compared to the U.S.?

The DAX 30 weakening this month so far hasn’t been too alarming, as it has unfolded with relatively weak momentum. But when compared to the world’s largest market, the U.S., German stocks have been showing signs of relative weakness. It might not be anything to worry about, but a development worth monitoring moving forward should we continue to see a growing divergence between Europe and the U.S.

Looking at the DAX chart alone, it still looks like a heathy pullback and has trend support to test not far below. A test of the trend-line off the December low could help further support the uptrend dating back to the late-year low. It could also offer would-be longs a solid risk/reward spot to enter.

It’s possible that with a little more time the developing channel off the July 4 high will present a bull-flag-like pattern to operate with as well. Holding the December trend-line and then breaking the top-side of the channel would make for an appealing set-up from where I sit – Hold support, then break resistance.

DAX 30 Daily Chart (pulling back to t-line)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?

CAC healthier looking, lots of resistance to contend with though

The CAC snuck above the April peak to test the May 2018 highs, but has so far struggled to maintain or climb above these critical swing highs. The recent price action for the French benchmark has been a bit more encouraging that is has for the DAX, with it moving mostly horizontal this month.

If the DAX tests the December trend-line, the CAC may not do-so as it is showing more strength. The only caveat to the CAC outperforming is that it may get tripped up on an attempt to break above the May 2018 high at 5657.

CAC 40 Daily Chart (holding up, but has lots or resistance ahead)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Looks to Accelerate the Downtrend Move

Technical Analysis.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Mahmoud Alkudsi

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Mahmoud Alkudsi

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

USD/CAD Price Forecast

  • Eyes on Fed Bullard’s speech for US Dollar with retail sales data release for Canadian Dollar today.
  • USD/CAD price action.

Have you checked the Q3 USD and Gold forecasts download for free main currencies and commodities trading guides, and learn what is likely to drive the price action through this time of the year.

USD/CAD – Trading Ineffectively

This week USD/CAD buyers have been capped at 1.3092 showing no impulse to keep pushing the price higher. In turn, the bearish move also has been showing slow down signs leading the pair lower however ineffectively.

Alongside this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 31 to 40 then remained flat after, negating any effective momentum from the buyers.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (April 15, 2017 – July 19, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CAD price daily chart 19-07-19 Zoomed out

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (MAy 19 – JULy 19, 2019) Zoomed In

USD/CAD price daily chart 19-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice on Wednesday USD/CAD failed to rally towards 1.3126 and tumbled towards the same old trading zone 1.3008 – 1.3064. The pair currently eyes the low-end of this zone hence, a close below this level may see the price trading towards 1.2920. However, the weekly support levels highlighted on the chart (Zoomed in) need to be kept in focus.

On the other hand, a close above 1.3126 could cause a rally towards 1.3166 although, the weekly resistance level underlined on the chart needs to be watched closely.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CAD Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JUN 28 – JuLY 19, 2019)

USD/CAD price four- hour chart 19-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart we notice since July 11 USD/CAD has been consolidating within a rough 70 pips range. Therefore, a break below 1.2976 may press the price towards 1.2920 although, the weekly support level at 1.2950 needs to be considered. See the chart to know more about the significant support levels in a further bearish scenario.

On the flip-side, a break above 1.3103 could cause a rally towards 1.3166 nonetheless, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart would be worth monitoring.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Gold Price/Silver Technical Outlook:

  • Gold price building near-term wedge after macro-wedge breakout
  • Silver trying to rise out of long-term wedge

For forecasts, educational content, and more, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold price building near-term wedge after macro-wedge breakout

Last month, gold price exploded out of a wedge formation dating back several years. This put the precious metal in good position to rally much higher, with a measured move target approaching the 1700 level. This will of course take time, but the path of least resistance is higher for as long as the breakout holds.

With that in mind, trading bullish set-ups in the shorter-term could yield good results if macro forces are to remain constructive. Currently, gold is nearing the end of a developing wedge that has been building since the last week of June.

A breakout above the top-side trend-line of the pattern and 1427 should have gold rolling again. In the event of a breakout the next targeted level will be a minor level of resistance created in 2013 around the 1488 level, with more significant resistance from 1522 up to around 1540.

The wedge needs to break, first, though, before getting too geared up for higher prices. A downside resolution or false breakdown before jamming higher, could develop. In the event of a breakdown, given the proximity of the top of the macro-wedge, it may not pay (poor risk/reward) to run with a short. In the event of a false breakdown (a common occurrence for wedges), then once price recoups back above the top-side trend-line of the pattern, then a bullish bias will reassert itself.

Gold Price Weekly Chart (strong wedge-break)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Gold Price Daily Chart (wedging up in near-term)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Silver trying to rise out of long-term wedge

Silver has been playing catch-up with gold in recent sessions. While gold consolidates in the near-term silver is trying to break the trend-line from July 2016 that makes up the top of a long-term wedge pattern. A weekly close above the top-side t-line will gear up silver for a sustained move higher along with its big sibling. If price fails back below by Friday, then a neutral bias will remain. In any event, if gold is to maintain its big-picture breakout, then silver will start to offer good-looking bullish set-ups at some point.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver Price Weekly Chart (trying to break top of wedge formation)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


ASX 200 Looks Consolidative But Record Highs Remain Within Reach

Financial markets, economics, journalism and fundamental analysis.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from David Cottle

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to David Cottle

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The index remains supported but below its all-time top
  • A serious reversal looks unlikely against the global monetary backdrop
  • That said solid support may be some way below the current market

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The ASX 200 remains well within its 2019 uptrend channel, with record peaks from 2007 still clearly in sight.

ASX 200, Daily Chart

Incidentally the monthly chart uptrend going all the way back to early 2009 also looks very secure.

Fundamentally the index has been underpinned in recent times by the impetus given to stock markets around the world by a US Federal Reserve apparently well prepared to lower interest rates. For its part the Reserve Bank of Australia has already cut its own benchmark lending rates twice in as many months.

The relative weakness of the Australian Dollar has also raised the attractions of local stocks to foreign investors.

Technically it is perhaps notable that that long upward channel has not seen a serious test of its upper boundary since early March, but that fact has clearly not stood in the way of bullish progress.

Still the index has wilted in the last week or so, albeit not to any great extent. Solid near-term support is quite tough to spot at such elevated levels. The first, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rise doesn’t come in until 6489. That’s 170 points or so below the current market and certainly is not under immediate threat even if that gap bears close watching.

The index does appear to have crept back into a range between 6701 and 6608. That previously bounded trade between June 19 and July 3 and a break of that lower limit on a daily or weekly closing basis could be a sign that the bulls are going to have to work harder to push the ASX higher.

There’s probably support below that in the 6500 region, where a notable top was made in early May. However, if the index gets down as far as that then it’s likely that a more obvious reversal is in play with focus likely to come fairly quickly onto that first retracement point.

Still, there are few signs that this year’s rally is in serious trouble yet and indeed it could well be juiced quite soon by those lower US interest rates. In that case the all-time highs will remain a realistic bullish target.

ASX 200 Resources For Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!


Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Nick Cawley

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Nick Cawley

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:

  • Crude oil pulls-back but the move is running out of steam.
  • New drivers needed for the next move.

The Brand New DailyFX Q2 2019 Trading Forecast and Guides are Available to Download Now!!

How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips.

Crude Oil Needs a New Driver to Continue Pushing Higher

The latest, muted, push-back in the price of crude oil has seen black gold touch a fresh one-week high in thin trade. Crude is now at the bottom of a zone characterized by two sharp sell-off candles, the body of the recent move from the top of the reversal doji (May 28) at $69.40/bbl. to the five-month low (June 5) at $59.22/bbl. The top of this zone also cuts across the 200-day moving average and sits just above 50% Fibonacci retracement at $65.60/bbl. A push back above this zone is likely to need a strong impulse to drive the move.

If this zone is respected, and oil fails to close above $62.75/bbl. then bears may re-test 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $60.63/bbl. before testing sub-$60/bbl. and the recent low. The recent up-tick has taken oil out of heavily oversold territory, but the current level still indicates weakness.

WTI vs Brent: Top 5 Differences Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 7, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Swing trading, chart patterns, breakouts, and Elliott wave.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Jeremy Wagner

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Jeremy Wagner

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points

  • CAC 40 carves a double top pattern
  • Elliott Wave pattern could not push beyond the mid-line of the Elliott Wave channel
  • Bears are activated on a move below channel support near 5200

The Elliott Wave pattern on CAC 40 is intriguing. CAC 40 appears to have finished the five wave impulse move at the Elliott Wave channel mid-line. This implies a weak market and is a bearish pattern.

This pattern suggests that a longer term correction is underway. The first battle of support emerges near 5,200 where the blue Elliott Wave support channel emerges as well as the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.

Interested in learning more about Elliott Wave and Ichimoku? Grab the beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guide as well as the Ichimoku guide.

CAC 40 Elliott Wave and Ichimoku Pattern

CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Created using IG Charts

Any near term bulls would need to show themselves in CAC 40 near 5,200. If this level breaks, then the door is opened up to 4,900-5,000. We have two different levels appearing there.

First, the previous wave ‘iv’ extreme is near 5,000. Previous fourth waves tend to act like a magnet in corrective moves.

Secondly, the 38% retracement of the June 2016 (Brexit) low to the November 1, 2017 highs appears near 4,921.

Therefore, if 5,200 breaks, traders can look for further weakness down towards the 4,900-5,000 price zone.

Lower potential exists, but we will need to see the structure of how the correction develops to weigh the odds further.

Why do traders lose money? Find out in our Traits of Successful Traders Research.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave analyst with a Master’s designation. This report is intended to help break down the patterns according to Elliott Wave theory.

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

Join Jeremy’s distribution list.

Other Elliott Wave forecasts by Jeremy:

GBP/USD Hanging Over the Edge of a Cliff

AUDUSD technical forecast hints at the market searching for a bottom.

Short term EURUSD Pattern Hints at Bounce to 1.17.

USD/CAD dives 200 pips, will it continue?

Gold price forecast points towards lower levels.

Crude oil prices reach highest level since July 2015.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Temporary Relief Rallies

USD/JPY : A Bird in the Hand is Better Than Two in the Bush


US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

USD Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) undergoing narrowing price action
  • Resolution appears skewed towards a bullish outcome

To see what fundamental drivers and technical signposts DailyFX analysts are watching, check out the Q2 forecasts for various markets on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

US Dollar Index (DXY) undergoing narrowing price action

The US Dollar Index is undergoing a congestion phase that is marked by a contraction in price action that should soon lead to a burst in one direction or the other. With support having come in on a couple of occasions (June/July) right around the 200-day, and the most recent test creating what looks to be a higher-low from the June low, the contraction appears poised to lead to an upside breakout.

The triangle formation on the 4-hr time-frame is clear, all that is needed for a bullish outcome is a firm breakout of the pattern and above the 7/9 high at 9759. A break above this threshold should at least give the DXY enough of a boost to run into the April/May highs before again possibly finding trouble around the 9830 mark.

In the event of a breakdown below the under-side trend-line of the triangle pattern, a break below 9672 could have the USD index rolling back downhill towards support in the 9580s. The bearish scenario is seen as the lesser probable, but can’t be ruled out which is why it is prudent to wait for one side of the market to confirm by breaking noted levels.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (general tilt is higher)

US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hr Chart (price action triangulating)

US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


No entries matching your query were found.

No entries matching your query were found.

No entries matching your query were found.

No entries matching your query were found.

No entries matching your query were found.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Price action and Macro.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from James Stanley

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to James Stanley

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points:

- USD/CHF resisted off of a key area again this morning. Should USD-strength continue, a bullish move over this resistance level can open the door to breakout strategies in Swissy.

- While USD weakness continued well into this month, USD/CHF has been range-bound since July, deductively highlighting a relatively weak Swiss Franc that could become attractive for continuation should USD-strength continue to show.

- Want to see how USD has held up to the DailyFX Forecasts? Click here for full access.

To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here

The U.S. Dollar has had a rather rough 2017. In a down-trend that’s seen as much as -12.3% of the U.S. Dollar’s value erased, even while the Fed talks up additional rate hikes, few currencies have been able to keep pace with the Greenback’s declines. After coming into the year trading above the 1.0300 level, USD/CHF has seen as much as 925 pips taken-out as the pair has driven-lower.

But after running into support in mid-July around the .9433 level (the 2016 low), the declines have slowed as USD/CHF has built into a rather volatile range-bound pattern. Resistance has begun to build around the .9773 level, and we’ve seen multiple iterations of resistance show-up here; each rebuking USD/CHF’s upward advance.

USD/CHF Daily: Range-Bound Since Re-Test of 2016 Low

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this point, a top-side break of that well-worn resistance level could open the door to an attractive bullish breakout setup. Just above this area of resistance is another level of interest at .9813, as this is a prior swing-low point of support that also showed as a quick swing-high before the pair initially sank below .9770. This can be used in a couple of different ways. For traders looking at the more aggressive route of taking on bullish exposure on a break of .9775 (a few pips beyond the exact point of resistance), the level at .9813 can be utilized as an initial target and an opportunity to move the initial stop up to breakeven. Or, for those who want to approach USD/CHF a bit more conservatively, the .9813 level can be used to trigger the bullish breakout, with .9772 becoming an area to look to for stop placement in the effort of containing risk in the event that the breakout doesn’t continue-higher.

On the chart below, we’ve added five potential resistance levels above the .9813 inflection point, each of which has been derived from a prior price action swing and/or group of swings. Each of these can be used as potential targets should the bullish breakout continue if/when resistance is taken out.

USD/CHF Four-Hour: Potential Top-Side Resistance Levels Applied

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX


AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Double Top Forming Below 0.7050?

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

AUDUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • AUDUSD hints at double top with Bearish Engulfing candle pattern
  • Confirming longer-term reversal calls for one-month trendlinebreak
  • July’s swing top near 0.7050 continues to mark immediate resistance

Get help building confidence in your AUDUSD strategy with our free trading guide!

The Australian Dollar tried its luck on the upside once again. Last week’s attempt at bearish reversal was cut short above the 0.69 figure and followed by a retest of downward-sloping trend resistance capping gains since early December 2018. Sellers might yet prevail however as the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern hints a Double Top reversal is in the works.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Zooming in to the four-hour chart appears to bolster the case for a downside scenario. Prices have demonstrably breached support defining the upswing from last week’s bottom, signaling that the move has been exhausted. Near-term support is holding back a deeper selloff thus far however, warning that the case for a reversal rather than mere consolidation is as-yet unconfirmed.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

Breaking the broader upward trajectory established along swing lows over the past month seems like it would be a more convincing indicator of downward follow-through. That would amount to clearing the block of back-to-back support levels in the 0.6934-53 zone. Several minor inflection points aside, achieving such a break probably sets the stage to challenge the pivotal January 2016 bottom at 0.6827.

AUDUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


FTSE 100 Outlook – Constructive Price Behavior Suggests Higher Prices

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

FTSE 100 Technical Highlights:

  • FTSE 100 building a bull-flag pattern
  • Next levels to watch arrive until upper 7700s

For our analysts intermediate-term fundamental and technical view on the FTSE and other major indices, check out the Q3 Global Equity Markets forecast.

FTSE 100 building a bull-flag pattern

The FTSE 100 has been backing-and-filling since topping out early this month; the price action is overall bullish in the absence of strong selling. A maturing bull-flag is the result of the gradual decline, which means here shortly if the FTSE is to make good on the pattern it should start to trade higher again in-line with the trend off the June low.

A move above the top-side trend-line of the pattern and 7590 swing-high from last week should be enough to get things rolling higher beyond the 7621 level from July 3. Looking to the left, outside of the small swing-high from August that recently helped put a lid on prices, there isn’t any significant price resistance until the congestion from the middle of last year in the vicinity of 7765/90.

The FTSE could still turn down from current levels and trade lower without breaking the sequence of the bull-flag, but it will need to do-so without strong momentum and maintain the parallels in place that make up the pattern. Should selling turns aggressive, then we will need to reconsider the index’s positioning.

Check out this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

FTSE Daily Chart (building a bull-flag)

FTSE 100 Outlook – Constructive Price Behavior Suggests Higher Prices

You can join me every Wednesday at 9 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


No entries matching your query were found.

Japanese Yen Gains Put Downside USD/JPY Range Break On Cards

Financial markets, economics, journalism and fundamental analysis.

Connect via:

Never miss a story from David Cottle

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to David Cottle

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • Fed has given many currencies a lift against the US Dollar
  • USDJPY has retreated toward its near-term range base
  • GBPJPY remains strongly biased lower too

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major Japanese economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The Japanese Yen has begun to gain again on the US Dollar once more, with the Federal Reserve’s apparent willingness to keep interest rate cuts on the table, despite last week’s good news from the labor market, providing the fundamental backdrop for this latest bout of Greenback weakness.

Technically, USDJPY’s short-term daily chart bias would appear to be to the downside too, if not quite conclusively yet. The pair is flirting with a break of a quite well-respected uptrend line which has so far market the bounce seen from the effective 2019 lows reached in late June.

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

Clearly a daily or weekly close below that line looks highly likely at this point and, unless Dollar bulls can reassert themselves, the base of the current trading range looks set for a revisit. That comes in at 108.80 and its hard to see any conclusive falls below that failing to retest the year’s low, probably quite quickly.

The range top at 108.98 provides those Dollar bulls with their most obvious upside target, but they would probably need to consolidate in that region before they could dare to dream of retaking all of the sharp falls seen on May 31. The pair would need to rise back to 109.60 if it is to fully erase them. That looks like a tall order.

A rather similar situation appears to be playing out in GBPJPY, although in that case the bias lower seems more obvious.

It’s difficult to discern how much current trading action is merely pass-through from pairs such as USDJPY and EURGBP and how much stems from the UK’s fundamental, home-grown Brexit and associated political turmoil.

In any case, GBPJPY is already back to its effective lows for the year, if the sudden, quickly corrected fall of January 2 is discounted.

British Pound Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

The cross has been headed lower since making its highs for the year so far back in March. The current downtrend channel is a little shallower in gradient than its predecessor but no less persistent for that. A sustained slide from current levels could see its base face another retest. That comes in at 133.77.

Japanese Yen Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!


Advertisement