Support & Resistance

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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Plummets from Yearly Highs- Bulls Eye Support

Short term trading and intraday technical levels.

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Gold prices have shed nearly 2% from the fresh yearly highs registered last week and we’re on the lookout for support on this pullback. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU vs USD Daily - GLD Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Outlook we noted that the breakout was testing initial resistance at 1328/29 - “A topside breach of this resistance barrier would keep the focus on subsequent objectives at the yearly high-day close at 1337 and the high-close at 1341 – look for a bigger reaction there If reached.” A topside break of the yearly-high close saw price register a high at the 2018 high-day close at 1348 before pulling back.

Interim support rests at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1316 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 1302. Daily resistance at the new high-day close at 1340 with a breach / close above 1348 needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting the 2016 high-close at 1366.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 120min Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU vs USD 120min Chart - GLD Outlook

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly highs. Price is holding median-line support in early US trade – look for initial resistance at 1328 backed by 1334- both areas of interest for possible exhaustion. Interim support rests at 1316 backed by 1302/03 – look for a stronger reaction there IF reached.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: The Gold breakout risks a larger pullback for now while below 1341and we’re looking for a low nearby. From a trading standpoint, look for downside exhaustion on a final wash-out towards the lower parallels for possible entries. Ultimately a breach above 1341 / the yearly opening-range high is needed to validate resumption of the broader uptrend. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Positioning - GLD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.21 (54.7% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are5.0% higher than yesterday and 12.8% lower from last week
  • Short positions are2.0% higher than yesterday and 25.6% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex


Dow Jones and S&P 500, Consolidate or Roll Over?

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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Dow Jones/S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 Outlook:

  • Dow Jones consolidating (still has H&S potential)
  • S&P 500 also acting constructively
  • Nasdaq 100 – bonus macro-tech chart

See how the quarterly forecast has played out so far and what it could mean in the big picture – Q2 Equity Markets Forecast.

Dow Jones consolidating (still has H&S potential)

The Dow Jones sprinted from the monthly low, and with the past few sessions so far representing sideways price action at some point it may gear up for another move higher. It’s not yet a sturdy consolidation but working towards it, perhaps sometime next week.

The Dow may continue to try and use the mid-May swing high in the vicinity of 29957/877 as support. A few days above there could provide the launch pad necessary for a rise back to the April high or better up to the record high just under the 27k-mark.

In the event sellers show up in earnest, there is still room for a head-and-shoulders pattern to come to form. But the market will need to turn down very soon to keep symmetry of the pattern looking neat. I will revisit this scenario at a later time should the Dow start rolling lower towards the neckline and become a relevant scenario…

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (Consolidating so far…H&S still on the table)

Dow Jones and S&P 500, Consolidate or Roll Over?

S&P 500 also acting constructively

The S&P 500 moving sideways could soon see a rally develop to the previous record high recorded in April. It’s not a bold call by any stretch of the imagination and with a little more time to build a base it becomes an increasing likelihood that we see the old record or better. Good short-term levels are difficult to find with the market in an extended position and limited movement in recent sessions. On hold for now…

S&P 500 Daily Chart (More consolidation could do good)

Dow Jones and S&P 500, Consolidate or Roll Over?

Nasdaq 100 – bonus macro-tech chart

This a macro-tech viewpoint. The Nasdaq 100 pulled off from a third push to a high which has in play a broad Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST). These are marked by increasingly larger swings (higher highs and lower lows) which demonstrate growing uncertainty. They are often thought of as topping patterns, but can lead to continuations in the direction of the broader trend as well.

So far, the bounce out of the first pullback from the high has been strong and suggest higher prices. We’ll find out soon, a breakout of the prior record of 7851 may spark an acceleration. To the contrary, this point in time is very crucial for the downside as well. If the current bounce rolls over and takes out last week’s low at 6936, it would be a strong indication that the pattern will lead to a swift sell-off.

Either way a big move may soon be in store as a resolution of the pattern could be nearing…

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Chart ('RST' pattern at critical point in time)

Dow Jones and S&P 500, Consolidate or Roll Over?

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


EURUSD Chart Analysis: Has Euro Trend Turned Higher? Maybe Not.

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • EURUSD breaks Wedge top, hinting that a bullish reversal is afoot
  • 4-hour trendline support has buckled, challenging bullish narrative
  • Sellers looking for confirmation on a breach of support above 1.11

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your EURUSD trading strategy!

Looking at the daily chart, the Euro may be gearing up for a run higher against the US Dollar. Prices have demonstratively broken countertrend line support-turned-resistance and breached resistance at the top of a Falling Wedge chart formation in carved out since September 2018. This hints that the path of least resistance now favors the upside, at least in the near term.

EURUSD Chart Analysis: Has Euro Trend Turned Higher? Maybe Not.

Zooming in to the four-hour chart warns that bets on bullish follow-through might be premature however. The appearance of negative RSI divergence along the way to setting recent swing highs – a sign of ebbing upward momentum – was fittingly followed by a break of trend support guiding the upswing from May lows. This evokes a corrective rise that has now given way to a prevailing downtrend.

EURUSD chart - 4 hour

The latest EURUSD pullback has not extended so far as to invalidate the Wedge breakout on the daily chart, cautioning against its premature dismissal. Breaking below immediate supports at 1.1289 and 1.1215 would start that process, but a daily close below support in the 1.1106-33 area – the launchpad for the recent upswing – is probably needed for sellers to regain confidence in earnest.

EURUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter


EURGBP Uptrend Losing Momentum, Increasing Risk of a Euro Reversal

Classic technical analysis, macro and economic themes.

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EURGBP Technical Analysis

  • EURGBP uptrend momentum is fading on RSI, reversal ahead?
  • Net-short EURGBP positioning still offers a bullish trading bias
  • EURGBP 4-hour chart warns of a test to come at rising support

Just started trading EURGBP? Check out our beginners’ FX markets guide!

Since I pointed out a bullish reversal warning in early May, the Euro has advanced over four percent against the British Pound. Taking a look at technical analysis, can that be sustained? As of late, the EURGBP uptrend has slowed after the psychological barrier between 0.8811 and 0.8838 was taken out. But, it appears that it left a mark on the currency pair.

As EURGBP approaches the next major resistance level, which is a range between 0.8923 and 0.8953 on the chart below, keep an eye on support. That would be a rising channel going back to the middle of May highlighted in red below. Meanwhile, negative RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is fading. This can lead to a turn lower ahead.

EURGBP Daily Chart

EURGBP Uptrend Losing Momentum, Increasing Risk of a Euro Reversal

Chart Created in TradingView

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart to take a closer look at near-term behavior, an area of resistance appears to have established itself at 0.8888. Negative RSI divergence is also present here. If this area were to be taken out, that would open the door to testing key resistance noted earlier. Otherwise, a descent through 0.8811 exposes 0.8698.

Meanwhile, IG Client Sentiment is showing that EURGBP is one of the most heavily-invested net-short trade when comparing overall conviction to other currencies, commodities and equities. This is still offering a EURGBP bullish-contrarian trading bias and may result in further gains down the road.

Join me every week on Wednesday’s at 00:00 GMT as I uncover what market positioning has to say about the prevailing trends in currencies, equities and commodities

EURGBP 4-Hour Chart

EURGBP 4-Hour Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter


GBP/JPY Price: Bears Need a Break Below the Weekly Support

Technical Analysis.

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GBP/JPY Price Outlook, Charts and Analysis

  • Boris Johnson’s growing chances to be the UK’s next PM weigh on Sterling (GBP) price. Eyes on BOE Governor Carney’s speech today.
  • GBP/JPY looking to trade lower.

Did we get it right with our GBP and JPY forecasts? Find out more for free from our Q2 GBP and JPY and main currencies forecasts

GBP/JPY – Bearish Move Developing

On Jun 11, GBP/JPY corrected higher after carving out a higher low at 137.48. The pair faced important resistance levels and the correction move stopped on Jun 11.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been pointing lower since June 11 emphasizing the bears clear intention to resume the sell-off.

Having trouble with your trading strategy?Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (FEB 21, 2019 – JUnE 14, 2019) Zoomed In

GBPJPY price daily chart 14-06-19 Zoomed in

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (NOV 10, 2016 – JUnE 14, 2019) Zoomed OUT

GBP/JPY price daily chart 14-06-19 Zoomed Out

A close look at the daily chart shows GBP/JPY looking to resume its bearish move, eyeing to break below the zone at 136.40 – 136.55. Therefore, a close below this zone could kick start a bearish bias towards 133.40. The weekly support at 134.92 and 134.20 need to be watched along the way.

If the price fails to close below the zone mentioned above, a rally could start towards 139.00. However, daily resistances at 137.48 and the vicinity at 138.36- 46 would be worth monitoring.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

GBP/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (May 29, 2019- JUN 14, 2019)

GBP/JPY price 4hour chart 14-06-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice GBP/JPY testing the Jun 6 low. Next trough to test is the June 4 low, therefore if the pair breaks below 136.55 the bearish momentum may resume eyeing 136.00. Although, the weekly support at 136.40 needs to be cleared first. See the chart for the key levels if the selloff continues below 136.00.

It’s worth noting that GBP/JPY rallied yesterday and stopped at 137.78. Any break above this threshold might send the price towards the June 11 peak (weekly high) at 138.32. However, the resistance at 138.24 (Jun 22 high) needs to be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


GBPUSD Price Pops Higher on UK Data Beat, Weak US Dollar

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

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Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis

  • GBPUSD back above 1.2720 and at a 10-day high.
  • UK Services PMI beat expectations but outlook still gloomy.

Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Sterling Boosted by Better-Than-Expected Services PMI Data

After disappointing UK Manufacturing and Construction PMIs earlier this week, the important Services data beat market expectations – 51.0 vs exp of 50.6 and prior 50.4 - although the increase was modest, highlighting the ongoing cautious mood in the sector. The UK Composite index slipped to 50.7 missing expectations of 51.0 and a prior month’s 50.9 mainly due to a weaker UK Manufacturing read.

Sterling (GBP) Manages to Continue its Recovery Despite Dismal UK Manufacturing PMI

According to Chris Williamson at data provider IHS Markit, ‘The PMI surveys collectively indicated that the UK economy remained close to stagnation midway through the second quarter as a result, registering one of the weakest performances since 2012’.

GBPUSD pushed higher post-release, aided in part by a weaker US dollar, trading at a new 10-day high. The USD has weakened sharply over the recent days after various Fed speakers recently suggested that the next move in US interest rates is lower with financial markets now looking for at least two 0.25% rate cuts this year. Global growth expectations have also been pared back with the World Bank Tuesday trimming its latest global growth expectations by 0.2% to 2.7% in 2019.

IG Client Sentiment data paints a negative picture for the pair with 81.5% of traders long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias signal. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish trading bias for GBPUSD.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 5, 2019)

GBPUSD Price Pops Higher on UK Data Beat, Weak US Dollar

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


USD/CHF Price: Bearish Move Stalls - Is it Over?

Technical Analysis.

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USD/CHF Price Outlook, Charts and Analysis

  • US Dollar looking ahead to CPI numbers today, and CHF for SNB interest rate decision tomorrow.
  • USD/CHF Bearish Momentum on Hold.

Find out more about USD price outlook through mid-year, download for freeQ2 major currencies forecasts

USD/CHF – Bears Hesitation

On Jun 5, USD/CHF declined to its lowest level in nearly five months. The price rallied after closing with a long legged Doji, showing bears hesitation in pushing the price lower. Since then the pair has remained in the current trading zone (0.9860 – 1.0008).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) tested the oversold territory on Jun 6 however, abandoned it on the following day highlighting the bearish momentum weakness.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (Oct 15, 2018 - June 6, 2019) Zoomed in

USDCHF price Daily chart 12-06-19 Zoomed IN.

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (NOV 1, 2016 – June 12, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CHF price Daily chart 12-06-19 Zoomed Out

Looking at the Daily chart, we notice USD/CHF eying to rally to the current trading zone high end at 1.0008after failing twice last week to close below the low end at 0.9860. However, any rally to the high end needs to consider the weekly resistance levels at 0.9950 and 0.9982.

On the flipside, if the bears retake the initiative then a close below 0.9860 may send the price lower towards 0.9786. However, the weekly support levels at 0.9823 and 0.9808 need to be watched along the way.

Having trouble with your trading strategy?Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

USD/CHF Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (May 16 –30, 2019)

USD/CHF price 4H chart 12-06-19

Looking at the four-hour Chart, we notice that today USD/CHF broke below the uptrend line originated from the Jun 7 low at 0.9859 reflecting the bears intention to send the price lower.

If the pair breaks below the June 11 trough (weekly low) at 0.9895 it might point towards the Jun 5 low at 0.9854 and towards 0.9824 after. Although, the support level at 0.9859 (the Jun 7 low) need to be kept in focus.

Any rally above the Jun 11 peak (weekly high) at 0.9936 could press towards 0.9961 and towards 0.9982 after. However, the resistance level at 0.9950 (the Jun 7 high) need to be considered.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


EUR/JPY Eying the Higher End of the Current Trading Range

Technical Analysis.

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EUR/JPY Price Outlook, Charts and Analysis

  • EUR price looking ahead to ECB Governor Draghi’s speech tomorrow.
  • EUR/JPY correcting higher.

See our EUR and JPY guides and find out for free what is likely to move market prices through Q2 from Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts

To learn more about data releases for this week check outDailyFX Economic Calendar

EUR/JPY– Changing Course

On Jun 6, EUR/JPY corrected higher after carving out a higher low at 121.24. On the following day the pair rallied and closed within a higher trading range (122.50 – 124.20).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) abandoned on Jun 3, the oversold area highlighting bearish momentum might be nearing its final stage . The oscillator pointed higher on the following days and crossed above 50 today reflecting a possible start of an uptrend.

Having trouble with your trading strategy?Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (FEB 19, 2019- JUN 3, 2019) Zoomed IN

EUR/JPY daily price 11-06-19 Zoomed IN

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (NOV 16, 2016 - JUN 11, 2019) Zoomed OUT

EUR/JPY daily price 11-06-19 Zoomed OUT

Looking at the daily chart we notice on June 7 EUR/JPY broke above the downtrend line originated from the May 1 high at 125.23. The price closed and traded above the downtrend line hinting at a rally towards the higher end of the trading range shown above, see the chart. The weekly resistance levels at 123.40 and the May 21 high at 123.75 need to be kept in focus.

In turn, a close below 122.50 would mean more bearishness and could send the price lower towards 121.30. Although, the supports levels at 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 122.15, 122.00 and 121.49 should be watched closely.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (May 7 – JUNE 11, 2019)

EUR/JPY 4H price 11-06-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice EUR/JPY rebounded from 122.62 yesterday and today. Therefore, any break below this level could start a movement to send the price towards 122.10 contingent on breaking below 122.50. The support level at 122.27 needs to be considered.

On the flipside, any break above 123.10 could mean the start of a bullish move towards the May 21 high at 123.75 however, the weekly resistance at 123.40 is worth monitoring.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


NZDUSD Chart Analysis: Downtrend Ready to Resume After Bounce?

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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NZDUSD Technical Strategy: BEARISH

  • NZD rebound stalling ahead of dense resistance bloc around 0.67 figure
  • Shooting Star candles, near-term trend line break argue for bearish bias
  • Critical support remains near 0.65, resistance running through 0.6727

See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your NZDUSD trading strategy!

The New Zealand Dollar rebounded after finding support near the 0.65 figure against its US counterpart, breaking the bounds of the downtrend from late-March highs. A pair of dramatic-looking Shooting Star candlesticks ahead of a dense resistance bloc running through 0.6727 hints upside momentum is fading however, suggesting sellers may soon retake the initiative.

NZDUSD price chart - daily

In fact, zooming in to the four-hour chart for a sense of near-term positioning, it seems like a bearish reversal may be in the works already. NZDUSD looks to have broken support guiding it higher over the past week, painting that rise as corrective and suggesting the longer-term decline is back in play. A push below immediate support in the 0.6559-78 area is likely to expose recent lows near the 0.65 once again.

NZDUSD price chart - 4 hour

NZDUSD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter


DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook Generally Positive

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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DAX 30/CAC 40 Technical Highlights

  • DAX has resistance ahead, but year high may be here soon
  • CAC lagging behind, if Europe rally stalls it is set up to lead lower

Check out the DailyFX Q2 Trading Forecasts to find out where our team of analysts see the Euro, DAX, and other markets are headed in the coming weeks.

DAX has resistance ahead, but year high may be here soon

The DAX 30 posted an impressive bottom last week and has been in rally mode most of the time since. The first point of resistance, the upper parallel off the May 3 high, proved to be of little impact. The German benchmark is now trying to gear up and reclaim the broken trend-line off the December low.

Continued strength beyond the broken trend-line will have resistance around the 12310-mark in play, which is effectively a failed attempt to trade into the May 6 gap. A small pullback or pause around there may be in the works and a good thing for those looking to play for a gap-fill and move to the highest levels of the year.

The May 6 gap-fill will also constitute trade to the yearly high at 12412 on a closing basis. A move beyond 12435 is needed for a fresh intra-day yearly high.

For now, the benefit of the doubt is with the long-side as short-term momentum continues to remain favorable for higher prices. Should we see a sudden, swift turnabout in momentum then a reassessment will be needed.

DAX 30 Daily Chart (resistance to watch)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook Generally Positive

CAC lagging behind, if Europe rally stalls it is set up to lead lower

The CAC 40 is trading towards its first level of resistance at 5450 since breaking the trend-line since April. Shortly beyond the May 17 peak is the May 6 gap from 5489 up to 5548, followed by the year high at 5601. The CAC is lagging behind the DAX, and as such if Europe turns down with force it is set up to lead lower. For now, the trading bias is higher until such price action suggests we need to switch gears.

CAC 40 Daily Chart (levels to watch)

DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook Generally Positive

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


USD/CAD Price – Bearish Sentiment May Continue on a Break Below the Weekly Low

Technical Analysis.

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USD/CAD Price Outlook, Charts and Analysis

  • Eyes on retail sales data release tomorrow for US Dollar.
  • USD/CAD bearish momentum slows down.

Did we get it right with our US Dollar forecast? Find out more for free from ourQ2 USD and main currencies forecasts

USD/CAD – Bears Still in Charge

On June 6, bearish momentum sent USD/CAD tumbling through the consolidation zone (1.3377 – 1.3516). On June 11 the pair rebounded from the 19 March low at 1.3250 and rallied after printing its lowest level in nearly three months.

The relative Strength Indicator (RSI) continues creating lower highs and remains below 50 emphasizing the bearish outlook of USD/CAD.

Having trouble with your trading strategy?Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (FEB 14, 2019 – JUn 13, 2019) Zoomed In

USD/CAD price daily chart 13-06-19 Zoomed In

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (Nov 9, 2016 – JUnE 13, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CAD price daily chart 13-06-19 Zoomed Out

A close look at daily chart shows USD/CAD eying to rally towards the high end of the current trading zone (1.3289 – 1.3377) however, the pair needs to clear the weekly resistance at 1.3358. Any failure to close above the high end may see the price fall back to the low end of the range.

Further bearish move requires USD/CAD to fall to the lower trading zone (1.3218 – 1.3289) therefore, any close below 1.3289 might lead the price towards the low end, however, the weekly support at 1.3250 ( the 11 Jun low) needs to be kept in focus.

Just getting started – need a hand?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CAD Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (Jun 3, 2019 – Jun 13, 2019)

USD/CAD price 4H 13-06-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, yesterday USD/CAD peaked at 1.3345 printing its highest weekly level, then the price slipped closing on bearish Doji pattern. Therefore, if the pair rallies above the weekly high then it could head towards the June 7 peak at 1.3366. Although, the weekly resistance at 1.3358 needs to be considered. See the chart for the key levels if the price continues to rally above 1.3377.

On the other hand, if the bears take charge then any break below 1.3289 could send the price towards the June 11 trough (weekly low) at 1.3250. However, the support level at 1.3273 (the June 12 low) should be watched closely. See the chart for the key levels if the selloff continues below the weekly low.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi


Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Price behavior analysis, short to intermediate-term trade set-ups.

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Gold Price & Silver Technical Outlook:

  • Gold price struggling as expected
  • Strong surge needed for a macro-breakout
  • Silver outlook hinges on the next move in gold

For forecasts, educational content, and more, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold price struggling as expected

Last week, gold rallied strongly into a major zone of resistance, measuring from the February peak at 1347 up to the July 2016 high at 1375. The macro-wedge has a top-side trend-line running over from 2014, with several important connecting points making the zone ahead quite formidable.

With that in mind the pullback in gold price to start the week came as no surprise. The question is whether it can garner the strength to push on through the aforementioned levels and spark a lasting macro-breakout that could have gold running for the foreseeable future.

In the near-term there may be more problems. Following the initial pullback we are seeing another push higher this morning that could result in a short-term lower high and a dip below yesterday’s low at 1320. How aggressive sellers become in this scenario will be noteworthy.

A modest pullback or failure to trade below this week’s current low could lead to a consolidation pattern from which gold can attempt to make another break of resistance. However, if sellers show up in earnest soon, then we may again be in the process of the seeing the long-term wedge further tighten up.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Gold Prices Daily Chart (consolidate or lower-high?)

Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Gold Prices Weekly Chart (1375+ needed for macro-breakout)

Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Silver outlook hinges on the next move in gold

Silver is a tough handle, nothing new on that front. Sometimes it trades well, often times it doesn’t. How it goes moving forward will depend on how resistance is handled in gold. A lower-high below 15.14 could be in the works, and if so that puts silver at risk of trading back near the May low on a break of the weekly low at 14.64, even if gold only declines only modestly.

Silver’s tendency has been to decline more rapidly than it rises relative to gold, relative weakness that has been in place for a long time and could very well continue for a long-time to come.

Silver Price Daily Chart

Gold Price and Silver Outlook Dented by Wall of Resistance

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX


ASX 200 Resilience To Trade War Fears Falters, Key Support Looms

Financial markets, economics, journalism and fundamental analysis.

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ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The ASX has retreated quite sharply in the past week
  • Bulls have a line to hold and not much time in which to hold it
  • Falls below the current uptrend may be sharp

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

Is the party over at last for the ASX 200?

The Australian stock benchmark defied trade-gloom and diminished global risk appetite quite well up until the end of last week. Rising iron ore prices and a weaker Australian Dollar burnished the appeal of what should probably have been among the hardest hit indexes of all given Australia’s clear links to both China and the US.

Still, despite some fundamental resilience, I suggested last week that the index may well be tiring, and so it seems to have proven since. Admittedly the index remains just within the uptrend channel which has bounded trade since February 4. However, its slide toward the channel base has accelerated sharply since April 22 and a test now seems likely, possibly quite soon.

ASX 200, Daily Chart

Moreover, this base takes the lows of May 14 into account. Indeed, they constitute its only confirmation since the channel began. Its plausible to view those as quite spurious for these purposes and, if we do, then the index is probably already below any uptrend which ignores them.

Even so the bulls may yet have something to play for if they can hold the current line, and it will be instructive to see how much support if any the channel base at 6271 can provide. Bear in mind that the first Fibonacci retracement of the rise as a whole has already given way. It was at 6362.5 and fell on Friday of last week. Focus is now on the second retracement, 38.2%, which comes in within a few points of the channel base at 6268.

Should that to be surrendered on a daily and weekly closing basis then the uptrend overall would be clearly in trouble and immediate focus would then probably fall on a band of support between 6235 (May 15’s low) and 6094 (the low of March 27). In turn trade in this area would bring the psychologically crucial 6000 point perhaps uncomfortably close, and investors should probably be wary in that case of a quick fall below it, possibly followed by further falls.

The bulls are going to have to try to form a base around current levels if they’re going to have another try at recent highs. However, the index is not at this point oversold and the fundamental picture doesn’t make this look very likely.

The index might get some fundamental support from the looser monetary policy overwhelmingly expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia later Tuesday, but against the global backdrop this could be quite fleeting.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!


Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Fundamental analysis and financial markets.

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Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:

  • Crude oil pulls-back but the move is running out of steam.
  • New drivers needed for the next move.

The Brand New DailyFX Q2 2019 Trading Forecast and Guides are Available to Download Now!!

How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips.

Crude Oil Needs a New Driver to Continue Pushing Higher

The latest, muted, push-back in the price of crude oil has seen black gold touch a fresh one-week high in thin trade. Crude is now at the bottom of a zone characterized by two sharp sell-off candles, the body of the recent move from the top of the reversal doji (May 28) at $69.40/bbl. to the five-month low (June 5) at $59.22/bbl. The top of this zone also cuts across the 200-day moving average and sits just above 50% Fibonacci retracement at $65.60/bbl. A push back above this zone is likely to need a strong impulse to drive the move.

If this zone is respected, and oil fails to close above $62.75/bbl. then bears may re-test 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $60.63/bbl. before testing sub-$60/bbl. and the recent low. The recent up-tick has taken oil out of heavily oversold territory, but the current level still indicates weakness.

WTI vs Brent: Top 5 Differences Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 7, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Probes One-Week High as Sellers Step Back

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.


CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Swing trading, chart patterns, breakouts, and Elliott wave.

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Talking Points

  • CAC 40 carves a double top pattern
  • Elliott Wave pattern could not push beyond the mid-line of the Elliott Wave channel
  • Bears are activated on a move below channel support near 5200

The Elliott Wave pattern on CAC 40 is intriguing. CAC 40 appears to have finished the five wave impulse move at the Elliott Wave channel mid-line. This implies a weak market and is a bearish pattern.

This pattern suggests that a longer term correction is underway. The first battle of support emerges near 5,200 where the blue Elliott Wave support channel emerges as well as the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.

Interested in learning more about Elliott Wave and Ichimoku? Grab the beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guide as well as the Ichimoku guide.

CAC 40 Elliott Wave and Ichimoku Pattern

CAC 40 Double Tops at Channel Line

Created using IG Charts

Any near term bulls would need to show themselves in CAC 40 near 5,200. If this level breaks, then the door is opened up to 4,900-5,000. We have two different levels appearing there.

First, the previous wave ‘iv’ extreme is near 5,000. Previous fourth waves tend to act like a magnet in corrective moves.

Secondly, the 38% retracement of the June 2016 (Brexit) low to the November 1, 2017 highs appears near 4,921.

Therefore, if 5,200 breaks, traders can look for further weakness down towards the 4,900-5,000 price zone.

Lower potential exists, but we will need to see the structure of how the correction develops to weigh the odds further.

Why do traders lose money? Find out in our Traits of Successful Traders Research.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave analyst with a Master’s designation. This report is intended to help break down the patterns according to Elliott Wave theory.

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

Join Jeremy’s distribution list.

Other Elliott Wave forecasts by Jeremy:

GBP/USD Hanging Over the Edge of a Cliff

AUDUSD technical forecast hints at the market searching for a bottom.

Short term EURUSD Pattern Hints at Bounce to 1.17.

USD/CAD dives 200 pips, will it continue?

Gold price forecast points towards lower levels.

Crude oil prices reach highest level since July 2015.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Temporary Relief Rallies

USD/JPY : A Bird in the Hand is Better Than Two in the Bush


US Dollar Technical Analysis: Can USD Hold this Rebound?

Position Trading based on technical set ups, Risk Management & Trader Psychology.

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US Dollar Index (DXY) Key Points:

  • The ONE Thing: Sentiment Extremes in USD are not matched by a positive technical picture for the US Dollar. There appears to be a form of divergence in the works as the US Dollar is rising, but at a tepid pace despite the largest number of US Dollar bulls in 52-weeks per Paul Robinson’s breakdown of the CFTC report, CoT Update for US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, Gold, and More.
  • Technical studies may be disheartening for US Dollar bulls as sentiment extremes are showing a lack of an impulsive follow through.
  • Make no mistake; the dire Emerging Market headlines tend to align with a strengthening US Dollar. If the US Dollar continues to strengthen, there will likely be more/ worse headlines coming from EM, but a reversal in recent US Dollar strength could bring massive relief to many global markets with a high stock of USD-denominated debt.
  • Technical Outlook on the US Dollar: The US Dollar has retraced 50% of it’s August drop, which followed bearish MACD (5,34,5) divergence. However, a break of the August low at 94 would open up a move likely to 93.79/92.9.

Unlock our Q3 forecast to learn what will drive trends for the US Dollar through the rest of 2018!

It’s a popular time to be hot US assets. The US stock market is running away with the record books while others bourses are steeped in bear markets. Traders in Foreign Exchange are also apt to talk about the virtues of being long the US Dollar.

Their arguments are sound when taking a snapshot of the current global macro environment that is ripe of the following headlines:

  • The Federal Reserve looks set to keep hiking despite other central banks having difficulty leaving negative rates
  • Britain’s Brexit progress looks uncertain at best despite Britain being set to leave the EU on March 29, 2019,without an agreement in place to define future relations
  • Emerging Markets are in crisis mode with Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, & Turkey seeing their currencies rapidly depreciating against the US Dollar.
  • China and the US are embroiled in a Trade War that seems to favor the US in the current atmosphere as China PMI recently slowed relative to expectations and the PBoC recently engaged in liquidity injections that may show a slowing economy.

More themes are going on right now, but you get the idea. We’re in an environment that one may think the US Dollar Index should be trading at or above the 2017 extreme or at least at 2018 extremes.

But, it’s not.

The US Dollar is working through a technical bounce right now with extreme sentiment, and technical traders should be aware that a flip in sentiment from bullish to bearishness could bring a sharp drop in the US Dollar that could lead into massive relief for emerging markets, commodities, and equities around the world.

A further rally in US Dollar would likely embolden the bears that are encircling multiple emerging market themes right now that could send us from theme to crisis.

Put simply, the strengthening US Dollar, despite being off the highs of 2018 and less than 50% of the 2017-2018 range remains a hamper to growth, and a coordinated move from the Fed to take some of the air out may “support the global market,” and lead to a falling USD into and through Q4.

Technically Speaking – A Weak Bounce On Extreme Sentiment

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Can USD Hold this Rebound?

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Momentum per MACD (5, 34, 5) remains bearish at below zero, but bullish sentiment is at one-year extremes. That does not sound like an ideal recipe for a bullish breakout, and traders should be on the watch for a test and break below the August low near 94.

Such a break would likely align with a broad rally in emerging markets, I’m looking at you CSI300, and would also be signaled first and foremost by the USD/CNY that has made an argument for being The most important currency pair in the world (sorry, EUR/USD.)

Given the technical concern I have and the worsening macro global backdrop (it’s not pretty outside of US risky assets,) I am watching for a pullback toward 93.79/92.90 on the US Dollar Index. This comprises of two key pull-backs before the August high and the median line of the massive Andrew’s Pitchfork drawn from the key pivots in late 2017 and early 2018.

A break below this zone would argue for a broader regime shift and would likely be cemented through speculative futures positioning that you can track from Paul Robinson’s weekly wrap up.

My bearish these would be discredited on a break and close above 95.61, the 61.8% retracement of the August range. Such a move would technically favor a move toward 97, the top of the channel on the charts.

We’ll see.

New to FX trading? No worries, we created this guide just for you.

MORE SUPPORT FOR YOUR TRADING:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q3 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer an excess of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our popular and free IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell


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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Price action and Macro.

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Talking Points:

- USD/CHF resisted off of a key area again this morning. Should USD-strength continue, a bullish move over this resistance level can open the door to breakout strategies in Swissy.

- While USD weakness continued well into this month, USD/CHF has been range-bound since July, deductively highlighting a relatively weak Swiss Franc that could become attractive for continuation should USD-strength continue to show.

- Want to see how USD has held up to the DailyFX Forecasts? Click here for full access.

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The U.S. Dollar has had a rather rough 2017. In a down-trend that’s seen as much as -12.3% of the U.S. Dollar’s value erased, even while the Fed talks up additional rate hikes, few currencies have been able to keep pace with the Greenback’s declines. After coming into the year trading above the 1.0300 level, USD/CHF has seen as much as 925 pips taken-out as the pair has driven-lower.

But after running into support in mid-July around the .9433 level (the 2016 low), the declines have slowed as USD/CHF has built into a rather volatile range-bound pattern. Resistance has begun to build around the .9773 level, and we’ve seen multiple iterations of resistance show-up here; each rebuking USD/CHF’s upward advance.

USD/CHF Daily: Range-Bound Since Re-Test of 2016 Low

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this point, a top-side break of that well-worn resistance level could open the door to an attractive bullish breakout setup. Just above this area of resistance is another level of interest at .9813, as this is a prior swing-low point of support that also showed as a quick swing-high before the pair initially sank below .9770. This can be used in a couple of different ways. For traders looking at the more aggressive route of taking on bullish exposure on a break of .9775 (a few pips beyond the exact point of resistance), the level at .9813 can be utilized as an initial target and an opportunity to move the initial stop up to breakeven. Or, for those who want to approach USD/CHF a bit more conservatively, the .9813 level can be used to trigger the bullish breakout, with .9772 becoming an area to look to for stop placement in the effort of containing risk in the event that the breakout doesn’t continue-higher.

On the chart below, we’ve added five potential resistance levels above the .9813 inflection point, each of which has been derived from a prior price action swing and/or group of swings. Each of these can be used as potential targets should the bullish breakout continue if/when resistance is taken out.

USD/CHF Four-Hour: Potential Top-Side Resistance Levels Applied

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Three Month Highs to Set Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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AUDUSD Chart Analysis: Aussie Dollar Resumes Downtrend, Eyes 0.67

Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes.

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AUDUSD CHART ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • AUD bounce rejected at former support, countertrend line broken
  • Downtrend resumption initial eyes support in the 0.6827-65 area
  • Longer-term positioning hints at test of 0.67 figure on the horizon

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The Australian Dollar appears to have confirmed that the recent upswing against its US counterpart was corrective in the context of a larger downtrend, as expected. Prices dropped after putting in a demonstrative Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on a retest of support-turned-resistance and broke rising countertrend support set from mid-May, seemingly confirming the reversal.

Near-term support is now in the 0.6827-65 zone, marked by the latest swing bottom as well as the January 2016 low. Breaking below that on daily closing basis seems likely to open the door for a test of the 2019 spike low at 0.6744. Immediate resistance remains in the 0.6978-0.7021 zone, with a reversal back above setting the stage for a challenge of the downward trend in place since early December 2018.

AUDUSD chart - daily

Zooming out to the weekly chart hints that a still-deeper downturn might be in the cards. That the latest swing lower was triggered squarely at the underside of a completed Descending Triangle chart pattern appears to reinforce the setup’s validity, and thereby its broader implications. A measured-move objective derived from a conservative assessment of its widest point implies downward progression to test the 0.67 figure.

AUDUSD Chart Analysis: Aussie Dollar Resumes Downtrend, Eyes 0.67

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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FTSE 100 Outlook – Wedge in the Works, May Lead to Decisive Move

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FTSE 100 Technical Highlights:

  • FTSE 100 reversed sharply on attempt to break below support
  • Wedge pattern developing, will need to wait for confirmation

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FTSE 100 outlook may hinge on pattern development

On Friday, we looked at the possibility of the FTSE 100 confirming a breakdown out of a head-and-shoulders (H&S) top and below the 200-day MA which is in confluence with the neckline of the pattern. To start the week the FTSE was trading well below the neckline and 200-day before a sharp reversal posted a key-reversal candle.

The rejection demonstrated a willingness by buyers to keep the UK index afloat for now. It may have been enough to propel the market higher, but with a sequence of lower highs still a possibility it may have only bought more time before further weakness.

A wedge pattern is beginning to come into view. It’s taking form as a descending wedge which suggests we may an eventual down-move come to roost again, but we will need to wait for a tighter pattern and breakout in either direction before running with a trading bias.

In the near-term, tightening range conditions are seen as the most likely outcome. On the top-side, the trend-line from the April high is just a short distance away, while a drop lower will quickly bring back into play the area around 7150. For now, risk/reward looks unfavorable until we see further price action provides a cue.

FTSE Daily Chart (wedge in development)

FTSE 100 Outlook – Wedge in the Works, May Lead to Decisive Move

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Japanese Yen Bulls Held At Bay Despite Ongoing US-China Trade Worries

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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • USDJPY remains in a clear downtrend
  • However, within that, a broad range trade now dominates
  • How that range breaks will probably be decisive for medium-term direction

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Japanese Yen’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The Japanese Yen remains in the ascendant. This is unsurprising given shaky global risk appetite, rooted in the long-running US-China trade dispute and now bolstered by major protests in Hong Kong.

There’s plenty of impetus on the ‘USD’ side of USD/JPY, with markets now more and more convinced that US interest rates won’t rise further. Indeed, the chance that they may rather fall next month is put at more than 85% currently by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s ‘Fedwatch’ tool

Still, technically speaking USD/JPY has run into at least a hiatus on its undoubtedly bearish daily chart. For sure the long downtrend which has been in place since the highs of late April. This hiatus takes the form of broad range trading. The precise barriers of the range vary of course depending on whether one looks at intraday peaks and troughs or sticks with daily opens and closes.

At its broadest the band runs from 108.81, last Tuesday’s intraday high, down to 107.82, the intraday low of both June 3 and 4.

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

This range has held good since the sharp falls of May 31 and it seems reasonable to assume that a break, when it comes will set near-term direction. Currently the pair is right in the center of its prevalent downtrend channel, however, and it seems very premature to talk of that braking either way.

If the current trading band snaps to the upside focus will be on channel resistance at 109.33. That’s quite a long way above the market though and I don’t expect a near-term test. Channel support lies at 107.16 and that seems more likely to be revisited first given current price action.

The Australian Dollar very often plays the opposite role to the Japanese Yen in foreign exchange markets. With its close correlation to global growth prospects thanks to a variety of factors, not least Australia’s raw material exports to China, it’s one of the most pro-risk currencies out there. It’s hardly surprising therefore that it should now be losing its battle with the Yen and it assuredly is.

AUD/JPY is now within a whisker of its daily-close lows for the year which were struck on January 10 at 0.7427.

Australian Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

The cross’s fall seems to have halted just north of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its monthly chart climb up from the post-crisis lows of 2008 to the peaks of 2013. That comes in at 0.7429. Should that give way on a monthly close then there won’t be much support for the Aussie between there and those 2009 lows. Retracement all the way down to 0.5500 could be a real prospect over the longer term in that case.

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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

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