Sentiment

Introduction to Sentiment Index
The SSI is a powerful tool unique to FXCM. It shows you FXCM's trading book: what our clients are trading. At a glance, you can see where traders are in the market. Are there large numbers of buyers or sellers? Are they exiting or entering? FXCM's SSI is updated in real time, and the information is current - unlike the COT report.
Updated: Index is reported every Thursday.
Symbol Present %L / %S % COI Sgnl
Table Key
Bearish
Signal
Bullish
Signal
Mixed
Signal
%L 
Long %
 %S
Short %
% COI
Chg. Open Interest %

Euro Remains a Buy until this Changes

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Euro Remains a Buy until this Changes

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

EURUSD – Our retail FX trader data shows ‘the crowd’ remains steadily net-short the Euro versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of herd sentiment suggests the EUR/USD may yet reach further highs. Indeed, positioning last turned short as the pair crossed above $1.0950 in early March with no interruption.

An important caveat is that we have seen a notable week-over-week shift towards crowd buying; total long positions are up 26 percent while short positions have fallen 18 percent. Until we see a more sustained shift and a crowd flip to net-long, however, we will maintain our long-standing bullish trading bias.

See next currency section:GBPUSD - British Pound Likely to fall to Further Lows

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Japanese Yen

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Japanese Yen

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDJPY– Retail FX traders remain net-long the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen and have remained such with virtually no interruption through the past 12 months. The USD/JPY has fallen from ¥125 to lows near ¥105 through that stretch, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment has kept us bearish throughout.

The same data shows 65 percent of open positions are currently long the USD/JPY—keeping our bearish bias intact. The only caveat is that long interest has fallen by 22 percent in the past seven days as short interest has risen 21 percent. It seems clear the broader downtrend remains intact, but the recent shift in retail sentiment suggests that the pace of losses may slow.

See next currency section: XAUUSD - Gold Price Forecast to Fall Through Near Term

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



British Pound Likely to fall to Further Lows

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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British Pound Likely to fall to Further Lows

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

GBPUSD– Retail FX traders are once again net-long the British Pound versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of selling into weakness.

Our data shows traders remained net-long GBP/USD as it fell from $1.53 to lows near $1.38 but briefly turned net-short as of last week. A switch back to net-long suggests the longer-term downtrend is once again in effect, and indeed it would take a substantive shift in the opposite direction to change our broadly bearish trading bias.

See next currency section: USDJPY - US Dollar Remains a Sell versus the Japanese Yen

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Gold Price Forecast to Fall Through Near Term

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Gold Price Forecast to Fall Through Near Term

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Gold– Retail FX traders have recently turned net-long Gold prices versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment suggests XAU/USD may continue onto fresh near-term lows. Indeed, total long interest has risen a notable 40 percent since last week while short interest is down 26 percent. Such sharp shifts often coincide with important turns in trends, and we believe this is no exception.

Near-term support starts near key congestion levels surrounding $1240, while a further breakdown could take the precious metal to the psychologically-significant $1200 mark. Only a marked shift in retail trader sentiment would change our trading bias.

See next currency section:DAX - German DAX Risks to the Downside

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



German DAX Risks to the Downside

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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German DAX Risks to the Downside

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

German DAX– Retail CFD traders are net-long the GER30 contract, which tracks the German DAX equity index, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment gives us a modestly bearish trading bias. An important caveat is that crowds have recently sold into the past week of DAX gains; total short interest is up 13 percent while long positions have fallen 22 percent.

We maintain a bearish trading bias for the German DAX, but a sustained shift towards retail selling would give reason to take the opposite stance and buy into gains.

See next currency section: S&P - S&P 500 Likely to Hit Further Highs

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



S&P 500 Likely to Hit Further Highs

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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S&P 500 Likely to Hit Further Highs

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

US S&P 500– Retail traders remain aggressively short the SPX500, which tracks the US S&P 500, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment suggests the S&P may trade higher. Indeed, our data shows traders have remained net-short the SPX500 since the S&P traded at 1,854 through mid-February. As long as traders continue to sell, we see little reason to change our bullish trading bias.

It is nonetheless important to note that total short interest has fallen substantially as the S&P has pulled back from highs. Our data shows 79 percent of total open orders are currently short the SPX500, but this is a notable change from the 91 percent seen through February. We will remain in favor of buying into S&P 500 strength until we see a much larger shift towards crowd buying in the SPX500.

See next currency section: EURUSD - Euro Remains a Buy until this Changes

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



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