Sentiment

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Introduction to Sentiment Index
Updated: Index is reported every Thursday.
Symbol Present %L / %S % COI Sgnl
Table Key
Bearish
Signal
Bullish
Signal
Mixed
Signal
%L 
Long %
 %S
Short %
% COI
Chg. Open Interest %

Euro Forecast to Strengthen Further versus US Dollar

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Euro Forecast to Strengthen Further versus US Dollar

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

EURUSD – Retail FX traders remain heavily short the Euro versus the US Dollar as nearly two-thirds of all trades in our sample are currently short. We typically take a contrarian view to ‘crowd’ sentiment, and the fact that traders have sold means we will look for further EUR/USD strength. A minor caveat is that traders have grown less short since yesterday; the total open long positions has grown by 26 percent as the Euro pulls back from recent highs.

It would nonetheless take a more substantive shift to shake us from our long-standing EUR-bullish trading bias. And indeed, a break above key technical resistance at $1.1415 would make fresh highs near $1.16 likely.

See next currency section: GBPUSD - British Pound Looks Likely to Rally Further

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Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



US Dollar Remains a Sell versus Japanese Yen

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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US Dollar Remains a Sell versus Japanese Yen

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDJPY– Retail FX traders remain extremely long the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, and a contrarian view of crowd positioning acts as signal the USD/JPY may continue lower. Our data shows there are currently over 4 positions long for every short—near multi-year extremes. A critical question is whether the pair stands to reverse at the ¥100 mark.

Our technical forecast calls for further USD/JPY weakness as long as the pair holds below key resistance near ¥103. It would likely take a substantive price reversal to force a comparable shift in sentiment, and until that happens we will continue to call for USD/JPY declines.

See next currency section:S&P - US S&P 500 Looks to Rally Even Further

Written by David Rodriguez, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



British Pound Looks Likely to Rally Further

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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British Pound Looks Likely to Rally Further

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

GBPUSD– Retail FX traders are now net-short the British Pound versus the US Dollar for the first time since the pair set a key top near the $1.33 mark, and a contrarian view of ‘crowd’ sentiment leads us to watch for further GBP/USD gains. Our data has otherwise shown heavily one-sided sentiment in favor of buying into Sterling weakness.

It is possible that the more recent flip to selling may mark another short-term top—much as a similar flip preceded key reversals in the past several months of trading. And indeed a hold below key resistance at $1.3371 would keep the overall bearish trend intact. As it stands we will maintain a contrarian bullish bias, but a reversal and a further flip to crowd buying would quickly act as confirmation of a trend turnaround.

See next currency section: USDJPY - US Dollar Remains a Sell versus Japanese Yen

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Australian Dollar Sentiment Points to Gains

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Australian Dollar Sentiment Points to Gains

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

AUDUSD– Retail FX traders are now net-short the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of ‘crowd’ sentiment leaves us in favor of buying into further AUD/USD gains. This admittedly stands in contrast to what we said a short time ago—traders were previously net-long and we called for weakness. Indeed it has been difficult to establish a long-standing trading bias given choppy AUD price action.

The US Dollar’s recent sell-off against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and other major currencies nonetheless suggests there is room for further USD weakness and AUD/USD strength.

See next currency section: S&P - US S&P 500 Remains a Buy until this Changes

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link. Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Gold Price Once Again set to Shine

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Gold Price Once Again set to Shine

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

XAUUSD – Retail FX traders are once again short Gold prices in US Dollar terms, and a contrarian view of sentiment leaves watching for further near-term XAU/USD strength. This stands in contrast to just a week ago when the opposite was true and we held a bearish trading bias. Indeed, it has been difficult to establish a long-standing position as the precious metal remains in a multi-month long consolidative range.

As long as retail FX traders continue to sell, we will continue to call for further Gold Price strength.

See next currency section:AUDUSD - Australian Dollar Sentiment Points to Gains

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



US S&P 500 Looks to Rally Even Further

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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US S&P 500 Looks to Rally Even Further

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

US S&P 500– Retail CFD traders remain extremely net-short the SPX500, which tracks the fair value of the S&P E-mini futures contract, and a contrarian view of ‘crowd’ sentiment has kept us firmly bullish. Our data shows there are a remarkable 10 open positions short for every 1 long—91 percent of all open positions are short.

The clear danger is that retail traders have often been ‘right’ at major trend turnarounds, and the extraordinarily net-short positioning warns of a potential top. But such extremes by definition are only clear in hindsight.

We will remain cautiously bullish until we see substantive evidence of a sentiment reversal.

See next currency section: EURUSD - Euro Forecast to Strengthen Further versus US Dollar

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



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