Sentiment

Introduction to Sentiment Index
The SSI is a powerful tool unique to FXCM. It shows you FXCM's trading book: what our clients are trading. At a glance, you can see where traders are in the market. Are there large numbers of buyers or sellers? Are they exiting or entering? FXCM's SSI is updated twice every day, and the information is current - unlike the COT report.
Updated: Index is reported every Thursday.
Symbol Present %L / %S % COI Sgnl
Table Key
Bearish
Signal
Bullish
Signal
Mixed
Signal
% L
Long %
% S
Short %
% COI
Change Open Interest %

Euro Will Pull Back Eventually, but our System Forecasts Gains

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Euro Will Pull Back Eventually, but our System Forecasts Gains

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

EURUSD – Our retail forex trader data gives signal that the Euro may continue to rally versus the US Dollar, and indeed the same analysis helped confirm the EUR/USD breakout was the ‘real deal’ as of last week.

There are currently 2.0 open EUR/USD trades for every one long, and a contrarian view of retail crowd sentiment leaves us watching for continued gains. Clearly markets don’t move in a straight line, and a massive month-to-date Euro rally makes near-term corrections likely. Yet it would take a substantial shift in forex trader positioning to water down our bullish trading bias.

See next currency section: GBPUSD - British Pound Likely to Trade Lower

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British Pound Likely to Trade Lower

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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British Pound Likely to Trade Lower

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

GBPUSD – A recent shift in retail forex trader sentiment suggests that the British Pound may have set an important near-term top through recent price action. Last week we noted the opposite—a sharp turn in crowd positions favored GBP/USD gains. Clearly that call was late, and when the facts change we need to change with them.

Our data shows there are currently 1.9 open GBP/USD-long positions for every one that is short, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment favors further declines. Indeed, this represents a substantive shift from just eight days ago when the same ratio was 1.2:1. If everyone is buying, we typically look to do the opposite and sell. The clear caveat is that there is risk the GBP/USD will instead stick to a tight range. Until sentiment shifts once again, however, the big-picture view remains bearish.

See next currency section:USDCAD - Canadian Dollar Hits the Skids, Losses Likely

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Canadian Dollar Hits the Skids, Losses Likely

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Canadian Dollar Hits the Skids, Losses Likely

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDCAD – A sharp move in Canadian Dollar positioning warns that the USD/CAD may have set an important short-term low. In the last three weeks we’ve admittedly said much the opposite as the pair rallied to fresh highs. Yet our retail FX trader data warns that the US Dollar may instead trade lower versus its Canadian counterpart.

Current positioning shows there are 1.3 open retail USD/CAD-short positions for every one that is long, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us looking in the opposite direction. Indeed it was just seven days ago that the opposite was true—most were long. The abrupt turn warns of further near-term USD/CAD gains.

See next currency section:XAUUSD - Our Data Shows Gold Prices Likely to Continue Higher

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Gold Price versus US Dollar Likely to Continue Lower

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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Gold Price versus US Dollar Likely to Continue Lower

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Gold– Heavily one-sided retail forex trader sentiment warns that Gold prices may continue to decline through near-term trading. Our trading sample shows that total open long positions outnumber those short by nearly 3 to 1, and until we see a meaningful shift in sentiment we will maintain our contrarian calls for further XAU/USD weakness.

See next currency section:EURUSD - Euro Remains a Sell as Trading Crowds Buy

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX



German DAX Poised to Fall Even Further

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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German DAX Poised to Fall Even Further

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

German DAX– Heavily one-sided retail trader positions warn that the German DAX may continue onto fresh lows through near-term trading. Our data shows that ‘the crowd’ has remained net-long the GER30, which tracks the benchmark German equities index, since it traded sharply lower at the beginning of the year. And indeed, current long positions outnumber those short by 2.5 to 1.

Severe declines make near-term corrections higher increasingly likely, but our bias calls for selling into DAX declines until we see a sharp turn in retail trader sentiment.

See next currency section: S&P - S&P 500 Remains in Trouble until this Changes

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX



S&P 500 Remains in Trouble until this Changes

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

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S&P 500 Remains in Trouble until this Changes

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

US S&P 500 – A sharp shift in retail trader positions warns that the US S&P 500 may continue onto fresh lows until further notice. Our data shows there are currently 1.4 open long positions in the SPX500 for every 1 that is short; a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leads us to believe it may fall further.

Since last week total long interest has surged 61 percent while short positions have remained almost exactly unchanged. It’s certainly true that sharp S&P 500 declines make near-term corrections likely. Yet the severity of the shift in crowd sentiment warns that losses remain more likely.

See next currency section:EURUSD - Euro Will Pull Back Eventually, but our System Forecasts Gains

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX



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