Sentiment

Introduction to Sentiment Index
The SSI is a powerful tool unique to FXCM. It shows you FXCM's trading book: what our clients are trading. At a glance, you can see where traders are in the market. Are there large numbers of buyers or sellers? Are they exiting or entering? FXCM's SSI is updated twice every day, and the information is current - unlike the COT report.
Updated: Index is reported every Thursday.
Symbol Present %L / %S % COI Sgnl
Table Key
Bearish
Signal
Bullish
Signal
Mixed
Signal
% L
Long %
% S
Short %
% COI
Change Open Interest %

Euro Remains Likely to Test Key Highs

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

Connect via:

Euro Remains Likely to Test Key Highs

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

EURUSD – Retail FX traders are net-short the Euro versus the US Dollar and have remained short since the pair set a key low near $1.09 in early March. A contrarian view of ‘crowd’ sentiment leaves us with a firmly bullish trading bias as retail traders remain short.

The clear caveat is simple—going against the majority of retail traders only works when markets move against them. Past performance is not indicative of future results, but our data suggests that going against the crowd has been a winning strategy overall. Yet the same data shows retail traders tend to outperform in slow-moving market conditions. In practice this means that our contrarian trading strategy can do poorly in low-volatility/range-bound market conditions.

We will remain cautiously bullish the Euro as long as crowds remain short, but it is important to note this strategy may underperform if the EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range.

See next currency section:GBPUSD - Recent Moves Confirm End to British Pound Downtrend

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



US Dollar Forecast to Fall Further versus Yen

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

Connect via:

US Dollar Forecast to Fall Further versus Yen

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

USDJPY– Retail FX traders remain extremely net-long the US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to further USD/JPY weakness. Indeed, our data shows there are nearly 3 open retail positions long USD/JPY for every 1 short—over 70 percent are long. .

Traders have remained net-long since the pair traded near ¥120 through late 2014. In that stretch the USD/JPY traded to decade highs near ¥126 but ultimately tumbled to recent lows below ¥108. Until we see a marked and sustained shift towards crowd selling, we see little reason to abandon our long-standing bearish trading bias for the USD/JPY.

See next currency section: XAUUSD - Gold Price Likely to hit Key Peaks

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Recent Moves Confirm End to British Pound Downtrend

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

Connect via:

Recent Moves Confirm End to British Pound Downtrend

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

GBPUSD– Retail FX traders recently turned net-short the British Pound versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of buying into recent strength. Last week we warned that a substantive shift in trader positioning warned of a similarly significant change in trend. And indeed recent moves act as confirmation of the same.

Our data shows traders remained net-long GBP/USD as it fell from $1.53 to lows near $1.38, but as of this week we see the opposite as traders are short. Past performance is not indicative of future results, but we believe going against the crowd may work well as we watch for further Sterling strength.

See next currency section: USDJPY - US Dollar Forecast to Fall Further versus Yen

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Gold Price Likely to hit Key Range Highs

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

Connect via:

Gold Price Likely to hit Key Range Highs

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Gold– Retail FX traders continue to sell into Gold price strength, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment suggests XAU/USD may trade onto fresh highs. Past performance is not indicative of future results, but our data suggests that going against the crowd has been a winning strategy overall. Yet the same data shows retail traders tend to outperform in slow-moving market conditions.

The key caveat to our calls for Gold strength are therefore straightforward: going against the ‘crowd’ could work against us if the XAU/USD exchange rate sticks to its tight range. Ultimately we think Gold is likely to test range highs, but we would ideally see a rise in volatility before taking a stronger bullish trading bias.

See next currency section:DAX - German DAX Uptrend Remains Intact

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



German DAX Uptrend Remains Intact

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

Connect via:

German DAX Uptrend Remains Intact

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

German DAX– Retail traders remain short the GER30—a CFD contract which tracks the German DAX—and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to further DAX gains.

A key caveat is that GER30 positioning has moderated considerably in the past week; our data shows a mere 56 percent of traders are short versus 66 percent last week. The recent swing in crowd sentiment gives us pause in our calls for German DAX strength, but we would ultimately need to see a much larger shift towards GER30 buying to abandon our bullish trading bias.

See next currency section: S&P - S&P 500 Looks to Rally onto Fresh Highs

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



S&P 500 Looks to Rally onto Fresh Highs

Quantitative analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment.

Connect via:

S&P 500 Looks to Rally onto Fresh Highs

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

US S&P 500– Retail traders remain very aggressively net-short the SPX500—a CFD which tracks the price of the US S&P 500—and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us firmly in favor of buying into S&P 500 gains.

As we have noted through the past three weeks, however, the clear caveat remains unchanged: such impressively one-sided positioning often coincides with significant price extremes and reversals. These extremes are by definition only clear in hindsight, and the S&P 500 has continued onto fresh highs despite our warnings. We would ultimately need to see a substantial shift in crowd sentiment to call for a sustained turn lower.

See next currency section: EURUSD - Euro Remains Likely to Test Key Highs

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX



Free Demo Account Free Trading Guides
Real Time News Open FXCM Account
Trading Signals Live Webinars


Real Time News