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At least they are willing to acknowledge that there is diminishing benefit to additional stimulus. Not outright admission of the detriments that can arise though (like a bubble born of moral hazard) which does us a disservice https://t.co/a37kaefyZY
I think everyone was expecting the 'taper doesn't equal rate hike' reassurance. However, they did say they will taper fully before hiking. And they did move up the expected timeline for the hike. So...
So Powell says the threshold for tapering based on inflation has 'more than been achieved' while full employment test is only being signed off by 'many'. Seems like they are really doing this democratically and counting each vote. If so, likely avoided taper by a person or two
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), along with other benchmark equity indexes, tracked higher after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/BUUGauoaCW https://t.co/lYlwwBwHW5
Priced-in outlook for 2025 has inched up a bit in recent months but the market still seems tilted to a pause after 2024, implying a shallow tightening cycle. That baseline steepening is probably the biggest #FOMC risk for markets in the coming weeks/months if inflation sticks https://t.co/8jLlPkYNFo
- We will keep Fed Funds Rate where it is until labor market has reached full employment and inflation has reached 2%
- Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen
Here is the Change in the #FOMC dot plot from June 16th to today. There are 9 participants forecasting at least one rate hike in 2022 and 9 that expect to hold. They've also added the 2024 forecast, separated from the 'Long Run'. https://t.co/QIkZTBK5SG
Fed is T-minus 10 minutes. $SPX hasn't closed its Monday 'window' (gap lower on open) and Dollar still working on a 'right shoulder' on a H&S pattern. Diamond Hands @CVecchioFX will be covering the event live: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2021/09/22/live-data-coverage-september-federal-reserve-meeting-rate-decision-christopher-vecchio-cfa.html
The Federal Reserve will release a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as well as the first ‘dots’ in the dot plot for 2024. Check out @CVecchioFX cover September Federal Reserve meeting live AT 1:45 PM ET ! https://t.co/Bh5ZYMFEDi
...I don't believe the markets will ever be okay with the Fed bowing out of stimulus. As market sentiment normalizes, speculative exposure increases proportionally, meaning there will always be a market premium to contend with. A form of the sociological 'normalization' effect
...that is my take on the panic around tapering. I'm not advocating for expediting rate hikes, but to continuously punt easing back on stimulus by even a marginal amount only compounds the market's dependencies - increasing moral hazard.
'The economy and markets are so strong that we can't reduce the $120 billion per month asset purchases. Further, if only we can continue this path for an indefinite future, the market will absorb the external risk on its own.'
Also, here is the schedule of FOMC meetings from now through the end of 2022. If the Fed doesn't signal taper today, next scheduled time is Nov 2nd and 'quarterly' event time is Dec 14th. Will taper be easier w/ one or two more high CPI updates? https://t.co/XFrwo24xbD
Here is my FOMC scenario table going into the rate decision. While a delay in the taper call seems feasible with the market wobble, there will always be wobbles before and the existential threat of a mkt tantrum. Always a hostage? https://t.co/MIDk28lQBS
Gold prices are pushing higher so far this week and the FOMC is waiting in the wings with their September rate decision. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/rVrJnq0Rgh https://t.co/td0i0PTQZz
Just checked the Fed's website to see if they accidently release the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) early by accident - happened once before. Nope, not live yet; but this will be the link when it is: https://t.co/GcANEDVowq
AUD/USD is little changed from the start of the week following the limited reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/t44yC8zG0K https://t.co/AJCTyiAWjx
The updated dot plot will be a major focus for today’s FOMC announcement — perhaps even more so than taper timeline language. This is because Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole emphasized the decoupling of balance sheet normalization from future rate liftoff.
$USD $DXY https://t.co/L1PFXmnK3g
The DAX is coming off the July low after getting pummeled on Monday, narrowly missing a test of the 200-day moving average at 14931. Get your #DAX market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/wfBAwBGQji https://t.co/4StdBoKlAk
Though I tried not to look at markets yesterday, I read quite a bit to track before the Fed. Suggestions that the markets were more confident with Evergrande doesn't seem practical. The 'quiet before the storm' of #FOMC is reasonable https://t.co/6SESUTD3yL
- Given the currently very favourable financing conditions and the solid recovery, I am not sure if increasing the volume of APP purchases in the Spring is the best way to avoid a cliff effect
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM73cHA https://t.co/qwLAWMpCGn
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