Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Oil Outlook: Russia – Ukraine One Year of Conflict Boosts WTI & Brent

Oil Outlook: Russia – Ukraine One Year of Conflict Boosts WTI & Brent

What's on this page

Oil Talking Points:

  • WTI Crude Oil searches for resistance above $70 per barrel.
  • Brent Crude finds support above $80.00
  • Russia, Ukraine conflict reaches one year mark, adding pressure to the oil trajectory over the next year.
Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Tammy Da Costa
Get Your Free Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

Today marks the one-year anniversary since the invasion of Ukraine which has had detrimental effects on the oil and energy market.

With the Covid-19 pandemic and stringent lockdowns pushing WTI crude oil futures into negative territory for the first time in history, prices have rebounded, rising above the 80.00 handle.

As the economy rebounded and the conflict exacerbated supply constraints, both WTI and Brent Crude oil have remained above the 70.00 mark.

Since Russia is a major exporter of oil and other energy supplies, Brent crude has illustrated a slightly higher degree of sensitivity to the supply disruptions that drove BR Crude futures to a high of 139.13 in March of last year (07 March ‘22). Although the lockdowns in China have provided an additional catalyst for the short-term move, the reopening of the second largest economy has contributed to higher prices.

Brent Crude Oil Futures (BR1!) Daily Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView

While the 50-day MA (moving average) holds as resistance at $83.44, Brent crude remains suppressed, treading around $81.95. Although a reduction in supplies were temporarily offset by the lower demand, the descending trendline from the last year’s move has now come in as resistance at the psychological level of $82.00 p/b. A move higher brings the 88% retracement of the 2022 move into the spotlight at 82.79, paving the way for a break of the bearish trendline resistance.

WTI (CL1) Daily Chart

Oil - US Crude Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% 0% 4%
Weekly 7% -5% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa using TradingView

For US WTI futures, a move above support at 73.6 has pushed prices toward the next level of psychological resistance at the upper bound of the descending triangle at 76.00. If prices are able to break the 50-day MA (at 77.56), there may be a probable retest of 80.00, with the opposite said true for a downward break of 73.60 (which could drive prices to the 70.00) mark.

--- Written by Tammy Da Costa, Analyst for

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.