Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Euro (EUR) Latest: Hawkish ECB Talk Boosts the Euro, EUR/USD Parity Being Tested

Euro (EUR) Latest: Hawkish ECB Talk Boosts the Euro, EUR/USD Parity Being Tested

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

EUR/USD Forex Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • ECB members double down on rate hikes.
  • EUR/USD may re-take parity in the short term.
EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Get Your Free EUR Forecast
Get My Guide

A number of ECB policymakers have been doubling down on the central bank’s position on interest rates and inflation, saying that higher rates are needed for longer to quell double-digit price pressures. In what looks like a concerted effort to re-assert the central bank’s authority and will on the rates market, the financial wires are full of hawkish ECB speak.

  • ECB’s Martins Kazak recently said that there is no need to halt rate hikes this year and that the central bank should continue raising rates into 2023 as any recession is likely to be shallow and brief and won’t require any rate cuts.
  • Board member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank Joachim Nagel recently stated that large rate hikes are needed and that the ECB must not let up too early on normalizing.
  • ECB Vice-President Luis De Guindos said that the central bank must continue raising rates to a level that ensures that inflation comes back into line.

The ECB hiked rates by 75 basis points at the end of October to 1.50%, its third consecutive hike and the highest level seen since 2009. The central bank is expected to raise rates by another 50 basis points at the December 15 meeting.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

While the Euro has been boosted by expectations of higher rates, the US dollar is under pressure as traders start to look through higher US rate expectations and instead focus on when the Fed may pause its tightening cycle. Although this may be months away, the fact the markets are already looking for a turnaround is weighing on the greenback. Add into the mix this week’s US midterm elections, and which party may control either or both of the House and the Senate, and the US dollar will likely remain volatile in the days and weeks ahead.

EUR/USD is trading on either side of parity at the moment with momentum looking to push the pair higher. A series of short-term higher lows from late September is underpinning the move and a re-test of the late October double top around 1.0093 is the next target. A confirmed break of this level would nullify the medium-term series of lower highs and allow the pair to move back toward 1.0200.

EUR/USD Daily Forex Price Chart November 8, 2022


Chart via TradingView

Retail trader data show 47.62% of forex traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.10 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.90% lower than yesterday and 14.01% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.04% higher than yesterday and 25.67% higher than last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 12% -6% 0%
Weekly -7% 8% 2%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.