Euro Week Ahead Forecast: EUR/USD Looking to Build A New Base
EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis
The single currency is set to end the week off its fresh yearly high but still in positive territory over the last five days. The US dollar has aided in the EUR/USD rally, while ongoing hawkish rhetoric reminds us that the ECB is still in tightening mode and looks likely to remain that way in the coming months. The final Euro Area inflation print is released next week and looks set to be higher than the prior month, a situation that will give added fuel to the ECB hawks. The latest monetary policy accounts are released on April 20, and while they do not capture the market’s attention as much as the Fed minutes, they do give an insight into the current thinking within the central bank.
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EUR/USD made a fresh yearly high of 1.1075 Friday before fading back towards the 1.10 handle going into the weekend as short-term US yields picked up. For the pair to push higher, it is likely that a period of consolidation around the current level is needed before the next move. The CCI indicator shows the pair is now in overbought territory after this week’s rally and this needs to be washed out before any further move higher can occur. All three moving averages remain supportive, and a cluster of recent lows on either side of 1.0900 should also act as support.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – April 14, 2023
Chart via TradingView
Retail Traders Reduce Longs and Increase Shorts
Retail trader data show 28.26% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.54 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.19% lower than yesterday and 25.10% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.28% higher than yesterday and 31.43% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
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