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Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Looks Short-lived, Key Resistance Being Tested After Dismal PMI’s

Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Looks Short-lived, Key Resistance Being Tested After Dismal PMI’s

Warren Venketas, Analyst

EUR/USD ANALYSIS TALKING POINTS

  • Eurozone PMI data misses reflects declining outlook for the region.
  • U.S. PMI data in focus.
  • EUR/USD faces key levels.

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EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

The euro opened higher this morning, maintaining its late run last week but ran into some fundamental headwinds post-PMI (see economic calendar below). German PMI was the first blow missing estimates for September, paving the way for a eurozone miss as well. This places the region further into contractionary territory highlighting the economic woes plaguing the manufacturing sector. The fall in EZ PMI’s were seen in both output and new orders while manufactures lowered their orders for inputs to avoid overstocking – S&P Global.

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EUR/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

image1.png

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

Later today, U.S. ISM data is expected lower but within the expansionary zone showing the disparity between the two regions. This is one such example of fundamental divergence that has allowed the Fed’s to maintain its hawkish outlook relative to the ECB.

Limiting the USD this week could be attributed to the spillover effect of FX and bond intervention seen last week which looks likely to continue via the USD/JPY pair which is trading slightly above 145.00 at the time of writing,

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

image2.png

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Daily EUR/USD price action is trading at a key area of confluence with the 20-day EMA (purple), short-term trendline resistance (blue) and December 2002 swing low at 0.9854 all converging as resistance. This makes a breakout above this zone significant in that it should open up subsequent upside. With that in mind, fundamentals remain skewed towards USD ascendency making the possibility of a return to 0.9685 more likely.

Resistance levels:

  • 50-day EMA (blue)
  • 0.9854/2-day EMA/Trendline resistance

Support levels:

  • 0.9685
  • 0.9601 (September 2002 swing low)
  • 0.9500

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH

IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on EUR/USD, with 59% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning, we favor a short-term upside bias.

EUR/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% -3% -3%
Weekly -12% -4% -8%
What does it mean for price action?
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Contact and followWarrenon Twitter:@WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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