Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View More
Euro Breaking News: EUR/USD Bounces as ZEW Economic Sentiment Beats Estimates, Pessimism Remains

Euro Breaking News: EUR/USD Bounces as ZEW Economic Sentiment Beats Estimates, Pessimism Remains

Zain Vawda, Analyst

Euro ZEW Economic Sentiment Key Points:

  • EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index: Actual -59.7 vs -60.7 September.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index: Actual -59.2 vs -61.9 September.
  • ZEW Current Conditions Hint that the Downturn has Already Become a Reality.
EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Zain Vawda
Get Your Free EUR Forecast
Get My Guide

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Euro Area improved slightly to -59.7 in October from -60.7 September, while Europe’s most industrialized economy saw a rise in investor morale. The Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose to -59.2 in October 2022 from the previous month's 14-year low of -61.9 while the current conditions subindex slumped to -72.2 from -60.5.

Following the most recent CPI print the European Central Bank (ECB) remains hamstrung in terms of options. Today’s improving ZEW numbers may serve to strengthen the ECBs case for a continuation of rate hikes toward its 2% target. The fear is that in doing so the central bank runs the risk of pushing the economy back into the doldrums with recessionary signs visible in the declining ZEW current conditions print. On the flip side, lack of action by the central bank could see the Euro lose further ground against the greenback.

Graphical user interface, text, application  Description automatically generated

Customize and filter live economic data via our DailyFX economic calendar

The ZEW Economic Sentiment figure is an aggregation of institutional investors and analysts’ six-month projections of the economy and functions as a reputable leading indicator. The data carries a lot of weight in the industry as the forecasts of future financial conditions are carried out by highly informed individuals by virtue of their jobs.

Today’s data print and tomorrow’s final CPI release will be key as the ECB enters its pre-meeting blackout period on Thursday. Markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a further 75bp hike at next week’s meeting as the central bank strives for its 2% target. Later in the day we will hear from ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel who is expected to continue the rhetoric of rate hikes despite the fragility present in Eurozone economies.

Market reaction

EUR/USD 1H Chart

Chart, histogram  Description automatically generated

Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda

Initial reaction saw the pair jump 20 pips higher. Following yesterday’s rally the pair has declined 30-odd pips in European trade prior to the data release with 1H price action hinting at a deeper pullback

If the price remains belong the long term trendline resting around the 0.9900 area as well as parity, the bearish downtrend remains intact. Bears may look at rallies as a potential opportunity for better positioning. A sustained break of parity may bring the bearish trend into question depending on the hiking cycles employed by both the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

Key Intraday Levels Worth Watching:

Support Areas

  • 0.9700
  • 0.9595

Resistance Areas

  • 0.9900
  • 1.0000
EUR/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -5% 1% -1%
Weekly 3% 7% 5%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

--- Written by Zain Vawda for

Contact and follow Zain on Twitter: @zvawda

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.