Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Breaking news

NFP prints at 339k vs estimates of 190k, ave earnings in line at 0.3% MoM

Australian Dollar Drops as Currency Markets Await US NFPs, Will AUD/USD Keep Going?

Australian Dollar Drops as Currency Markets Await US NFPs, Will AUD/USD Keep Going?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist

Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Jobless Claims, NFPs – Asia Pacific Market Open:

  • Australian Dollar falls as US jobless claims data briefly jitters markets
  • All eyes now turn to US NFPs as cracks slowly emerge in the economy
  • AUD/USD eyes an Ascending Triangle chart formation, support in focus
Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Get Your Free Equities Forecast
Get My Guide

Asia-Pacific Market Briefing – US Economy Showing Early Cracks Ahead of NFP Data

The Australian Dollar underperformed against its major counterparts on Thursday. The sentiment-linked currency received a boost following the latest round of US initial jobless claims, which surprised higher at 228k compared to the 200k median estimate. However, that outcome turned out to be a decline from the previous period, which was revised higher to 246k.

Meanwhile, a separate report showed that US-based employers reported 89.7k job cuts in March. That was a 15% increase compared to February. The initial reaction to these prints saw US equities weaken and the haven-linked US Dollar strengthens. Combined, this pushed AUD/USD lower. Still, by the end of the Wall Street session, equities reversed losses and finished in the green.

Traders might be looking to a solid non-farm payrolls report for March, which is due later today at 12:30 GMT. However, US markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday, lowering liquidity and increasing volatility risk to an unexpected outcome. The US economy is seen adding 230k non-farm payrolls as the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.6%.

However, some early cracks are appearing in the economy. The Citi Economic Surprise Index has fallen to its lowest since late February. This is a sign that lately, economic outcomes have been coming in softer than estimated. Meanwhile, a custom momentum indicator I made is at its lowest since the immediate aftermath of the 2020 global pandemic – see the chart below.

With numerous trading exchanges offline until next week, the focus will shift to the currency market reaction to the US jobs report. With fears of a recession growing after US banking system woes, a softer NFP print could induce risk aversion. Traders have lately been focusing on what a dovish Fed could mean for markets, this could quickly switch to panic if economic data starts to quickly turn south. That may bode ill for AUD/USD.

Is the US Economy Slowing?


Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD could be increasingly looking at a bearish setup. An Ascending Triangle seems to be carving out since February. Breaking lower could open the door to extending January’s top. This is as the 50-day Simple Moving Average appears to be holding as key resistance, maintaining the downside bias. Extending losses places the focus on the March low.

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist for

To contact Daniel, follow him on Twitter:@ddubrovskyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.