NFP Strategy Focus on Dollar's Fed Timing or Dow's Risk Response?
- US payrolls are expected to have grown by a net 200,000 positions May though surrounding data has fed doubt
- A Dollar response via Fed rate speculation will be shaped by the market's considerable skepticism of 2016 hikes
- The 'risk' response to the employment data has the capacity to be much more volatility and systemic
The monthly round of US employment data - often condensed down to an NFPs focus - is historically one of the most consistent market-moving events on the docket. However, this data's impact has shifted somewhat over the past months with a transition away from obsessing over Fed timing to a more direct motivator for faltering and volatility risk appetite. With the April rate decision behind us and the next FOMC gathering scheduled far afield on June 15, the interest in whether the jobs data amplifies the hawkish or dovish view will be restrained. However, given the market's persistent discount to the Fed's own rate view (something the central bank frequently laments), the greater potential is for a hawkish boost which would most likely lift the Dollar. A risk response, however, is the most capable catalyst ahead. After nearly three months of climb in risk-oriented assets and a progressive drop in confidence behind stimulus driving market gains, volatility rests with a sentiment dive. We talk the strategy, scenarios and preferred trade outlets for the upcoming NFPs release in today's Strategy Video.
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