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Dollar and Equities Strategy Heading for Fed Decision

Dollar and Equities Strategy Heading for Fed Decision

2016-04-27 01:56:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The Dollar's recent volatility - particularly Friday's upside break - may reduce the pressure in a Fed skew
  • A rate hike is unlikely in April but shouldn't be written off; June speculation is the most likely focal point
  • Additional, key event risk may distort the FOMC reaction including UK and US GDP as well as BoJ and RBNZ decisions

See how retail traders are positioned in the Dollar-based pairs heading into the Fed decision or read my 2Q forecast for the USDollar in the Trading Guides page.

Amid a 72 hour deluge of high-level event risk, one particular calendar item stands above the rest: the Fed rate decision. While certainly a key event for the Dollar and US assets, its reach expands far beyond the country's financial borders. The US monetary policy position is the most divergent among the world's largest central banks. This sets the tone in the competitive monetary policy debate that sees accommodative efforts from the likes of the ECB and BoJ - among others - fall under deepening skepticism. It will also carry on its shoulders the whiles of global investor sentiment. Though, delay in normalization is now more likely to be viewed as deteriorating economic conditions and thereby a negative rather than a positive for a little more time at extremely low funding rates. The focus on this event will be on the speculation surrounding a June hike, but don't write off a surprise April move. We focus on the implications and trading strategy around the upcoming FOMC rate decision in today's Trading Video.

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