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Video: Oil Prices Aren't the Only Systemic Risk Out There

Video: Oil Prices Aren't the Only Systemic Risk Out There

2016-04-20 00:37:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The reaction to the failed Doha talks showed the influence and transmission of systemic concerns

• There are potentially larger risks ahead including Brexit, China, direct FX intervention and even a 'Grexit'

• Without the benefit of definite time frames, some of these risks are underappreciated and thereby greater threats

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The volatility and reach that resulted from this past weekend's Doha meeting breakdown showed the importance and influence of Oil prices as a global driver. That said, energy prices aren't the only systemic risk the global markets face. There are grander and more muddled threats out there. And, what makes them far more dangerous is a distinct lack of market deference for their scope and imminence. Not far from the headlines, the EU Referendum in the UK ('Brexit') scheduled for June 23 carries a distinct date. However, like the Scottish Referendum and UK general election before it, we know the tides will rise in advance. Intervention by the BoJ and Japanese Ministry of Finance may be a headline favorite, but market preparation is dangerously divorced from the discussion. China remains a key concern for the IMF, Fed and other major global authorities; yet the market's attention and risk pricing suggest it is far less threatening than that would insinuate. Then there is Greece. The exit of the Eurozone's most troubled members is still a dangerous probability, yet there is little-to-no tangible concern as to the systemic threat that poses to the Euro as a reserve currency being priced by markets. We review these key risks and how their development can generate far greater risks - and opportunities - in today's Strategy Video.

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