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Strategy Video: Why Aren't Fed Rate Forecasts Driving the Dollar?

Strategy Video: Why Aren't Fed Rate Forecasts Driving the Dollar?

2014-07-09 21:05:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The consensus amongst the FOMC is for a first Fed hike in 2015 and further tightening thereafter

• Though the central bank's own rate forecasts outpace many counterparts, the markets aren't conforming

• Another sign of complacency, we are looking at another well of untapped dollar potential

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The FOMC minutes reinforced a forecast that will carry a lot of weight with global capital markets and the US Dollar: a transition to policy tightening and rate hikes. And yet, where was the risk aversion and dollar rally that we would expect to accompany this change in tides? The market is discounting its rate projections and the impact they would have in the markets in part due to the universal sense of complacency hanging over us like a fog. That said the potential energy stored up in this theme is substantial. We discuss rate forecasts and the dollar in today's Strategy Video.

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