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Strategy Video: What Will Drive the USD This Week and Beyond

Strategy Video: What Will Drive the USD This Week and Beyond

2014-07-01 19:42:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The USDollar Index has dropped back to 16-month range support on key EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD breaks

• Market conditions this week are not conducive to follow through - for individual assets or themes

• A focus on interest rates and risk theme put the greenback in a good position as long as activity rises

See volume behind the majors during the NFPs and ECB rate decision to gauge your trading approach using the free FXCM Real Volume and Transactions indicators.

The US Dollar has suffered critical breaks this week on EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. These moves have not turned the tide for the USDollar Index, but it has driven the benchmark to a 16-month range support. Under pressure from a fading volatility backdrop (weighing against the currency's safe haven / liquidity appeal) and the market's stubborn doubt of the Fed's interest rate timetable, the fundamental tides are clearly against the currency. And yet, its losses have been contained to technical breaks in name only and little-to-no momentum. Status quo this week is unfavorable for the dollar, but market conditions are also constricting trend development. But, should market activity pick up the following week - either risk trends or monetary policy speculation are likely to breathe new interest into the greenback. We take a more critical look at the US Dollar in today's Strategy Video.

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