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Strategy Video: When Does Monetary Policy Drive EURUSD, GBPUSD and Others?

Strategy Video: When Does Monetary Policy Drive EURUSD, GBPUSD and Others?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• Data and policy remarks this past session for the UK and US changed rate expectations, but not the GBPUSD

• Speculation on interest rates and monetary policy is a key fundamental driver

• The impact of any fundamental theme or update depends on how much it alters prevailing expectations

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Speculation of a BoE rate hike months ahead has led the pound to rally thousands of pips while expectations of an ECB rate cut reversed EURUSD from 1.4000. Yet, this past session, a policy move by the UK central bank and very hawkish comments made by Fed officials failed to generate much traction from the pound or dollar - much less GBPUSD. Monetary polish - from rate hike timing to speculation of stimulus upgrades - is one of the market's most influential fundamental themes. However, there are certain requirements that even the top themes need to meet to move markets. We discuss these conditions and the policy standings for the major currencies in today's Strategy Video.

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