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Strategy Video: EURJPY and USDJPY Medium-Term Trend Potential

Strategy Video: EURJPY and USDJPY Medium-Term Trend Potential

2014-05-16 02:09:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Yen crosses are unique in that they expose opportunity through the market's top two fundamental themes

• Risk trends are struggling to progress higher and a volatile risk aversion move would crater Yen pairs

• Monetary policy forecasts have over-priced BoJ QE while some other central banks are becoming more dovish

Do you want to simplify your Yen trade to take advantage of its broader trend developments? Use the JPY Mirror Trader Currency Baskets to place a trade.

EURUSD and GBPUSD offered short-term trade opportunities on specific data releases. Yet both may fall short of the medium-term potential in the Yen crosses. Pairings based on the Japanese currency are unique in that they exemplify both risk appetite trends and relative monetary policy - the FX market's two primary themes. Furthermore, there is an imbalance in potential and impact for sentiment trends moving forward that leverages a collapse in risk. As for the BoJ's presence, a cap on QE leaves premium that is being worked off while some other central banks are turning more dovish. Under this mix, most yen crosses look exposed to medium-term bearish reversals, but we can leverage the scenarios to highlight particularly well positioned pairs like EURJPY. We discuss themes and potential in today's Strategy Video.

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