Talking Points:
• A breakout for a number of the Euro pairs is a high probability, and the direction is up to the ECB
• Speculative flows and reserve diversification are keeping a bid under the Euro
• The ECB is the only offset after making the connection between exchange rates and inflation pressures
Watch the ECB Rate Decision live with Currency Analyst Christopher Vecchio in the DailyFX-Plus Live Classroom!
A lot of event risk has crossed the newswires, but little of it has been market-moving. That isn't likely to be the case with the ECB rate decision. From a basic technical perspective, pairs like EURUSD and EURJPY have simply run out of room and are thereby highly sensitive to a fundamental prod. More influential for trend development, the Euro is more resilient to risk trends - which has proven difficult to engage - but exceptionally reactive to monetary policy changes. The European Central Bank has put itself in a situation where it will move the markets regardless of its update. Attempting to curb a natural flow of capital into Europe, the policy authority linked policy to the exchange rate. If the group remains hands off with EURUSD so close to 1.4000, it could come off as tolerance for a euro climb. Should they offer stimulus, the abrupt change in tack would certainly unsettle the market. We look at the event, scenarios and trades with the ECB decision in today's Strategy Video.
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