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Strategy Video: A Pound Outlook with GBPUSD at a 1.6800 Triple Top

Strategy Video: A Pound Outlook with GBPUSD at a 1.6800 Triple Top

2014-04-16 23:27:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The pound has good reason to show strength against the dollar and yen given its rate forecast

• A slightly weaker CPI report this week was more than offset by the strong jobs report

• Bullish breakouts aren't difficult for GBPUSD and GBPJPY but follow through certainly would be

Expect breakouts? Use the DailyFX Breakout 2 strategy to signal or confirm setups!

The British pound is up against all of its major counterparts since the BoE took a more hawkish bearing on policy last summer. Today, this drive finds GBPUSD starting at 4-year highs and a 1.6800 triple top. Fundamentals have certainly supported the currency's move to this point, but when is the market saturated with yield expectations? The market is already pricing in a 1Q 2015 first BoE hike (some are speculating as early as 4Q 2014) and the pace after the first move is seen as relatively aggressive. To further esclate these projections is increasingly difficult and any update that undermines that conviction could quickly render the currency 'expensive'. We focus on GBPUSD and the pound as well as how to trade it in today's Strategy Video.

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