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Strategy Video: Risk Trends - This Time is Different?

Strategy Video: Risk Trends - This Time is Different?

2014-04-14 23:50:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• "This time is different" is often a cautionary phrase to make us rethink a low probability scenario

• Major reversals or shifts in market conditions shifts happen infrequently, but they do happen

• Trading habits behind the mature 'risk on' theme may signal a long

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

A day does not pass where we don't here the phrase "this time is different". The saying is sometimes used to warn of complacency, but more often than not it is a contrarian warning not to fight trends and probability. Nowhere has this been a heavier debate than with general 'risk trends'. A drop in volatility and fear has translated into an incredible chase for yield to the point that investors may be over-exposing themselves to risk. Yet, fundamentals and technicals that we use to assess investors reasoning and motivations have given numerous false signals along the way. Yet, a change is actually starting to form in actual trading habits. While a risk collapse may not be set for tomorrow or this week, it will likely happen sooner rather than later. We discuss this theme specifically in today's Strategy Video.

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