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Forex Strategy Video: Separating Temptation and a Good Trade

Forex Strategy Video: Separating Temptation and a Good Trade

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• When we come across a pristine technical pattern or a high-volatility event, the temptation is to trade

• A one-dimensional trade however is a low probability trade

• We look what constitutes temptation and a good trade with a look at S&P 500, USDJPY, CADJPY and others

Download the Consecutive Bar Indicator used in today's video for free and use it to measure the historical significance and over-extended level of the markets.

A pair has put in for its most consistent run on record, heads into resistance and then completes the picture with a shooting star formation. That is exactly what CADJPY did to end this week. Some would consider this setup complete and a trade signaled. However, I would say it is still 'tentative'. In fact, even setups that have marked a more defined turn (like the S&P 500, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCAD, etc) are not yet ready given surrounding conditions. Our concern is not the initial break - or reversal - but the follow through. That's a probability liability given the weekend and BoJ rate decision early next week. We talk about the elements of a temptation versus a high-probability trade in the weekend Strategy Video.

Find out what event risk can threaten the trade setups discussed in today's video with the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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